Large-scale prediction method of inland waterway ships under restricted conditions

Abstract

The invention discloses an inland waterway ship large-scale prediction method in restricted conditions. The method comprises the following steps: (1) determining restricted conditions and influence factors; (2) selecting a prediction model; (3) carrying out sample selection and a pretreatment; (4) selecting a restriction condition; (5) selecting a vector machine type and parameter; (6) establishing a model and determining an evaluation index; (7) carrying out prediction analysis. According to the invention, through selecting a support vector machine model, determining lockage average tonnage in former years as the influence factor, and selecting a waterway grade as the restricted condition, ship large-scale prediction is carried out. The average tonnage in former years is selected as the influence factor, and a predicted value has viscosity on an aspect of data and shows a slow increase phase, a rapid increase phase, a stable increase phase and a stable phase. The predicted value provides a reference and a basis at an aspect of time for ship manufacturing industry and traffic infrastructure construction departments.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a large-scale prediction method for inland waterway ships under restricted conditions, and belongs to the technical field of ships. Background technique [0002] With the globalization and integration of the world economy, the cargo volume is growing strongly and the trend of large-scale ocean-going ships is obvious. Correspondingly, the ship capacity structure of my country's inland waterways has changed significantly year by year. Taking Xijiang Wuzhou Hub as an example, in 2003, the average load of cargo ships was 250 tons, and there were 9 ships with a load of more than 1,000 tons. The above 82 ships, the newly added ships are mainly above 1,000 tons, the average tonnage of ships maintains an annual growth rate of 8.1%, and the capacity increases and shows a trend of large-scale. [0003] The large-scale ship is an important means to improve transportation efficiency and reduce unit transportation cost, and it is a phased p...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Taking the ship lock as an example, its passing capacity is affected by the tonnage of the ship and the loading coefficient. In the short term, the actual passing capacity of the ship lock will increase with the increase of the size of the ship. However, the level of the ship lock is certain. When the large ship reaches a certain proportion When , the traffic capacity of the ship lock cannot continue to increase, and if it continues to increase in size, the traffic capacity will decrease

[0005] For a long time, the research on inland water transport capacity has been based on the macro cargo volume as an indicator to calculate the passage capacity of waterways and navigable structures. The forecast of cargo volume can reflect the macro trend, but it cannot reflect the relationship between the change of ship tonnage and the traffic capacity.

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