Origin-destination (OD) estimation method for traffic demand of port roadway based on freight processes

Abstract

The invention discloses an origin-destination (OD) estimation method for the traffic demand of a port roadway based on freight processes. The method is based on an activity theory, the entire freight logistics procedure is taken as a research unit, the main traffic generation and attraction point of a harbor district is taken as a starting point, and the typical freight logistics procedure of cargo vehicles in the harbor district is taken as an analysis object. Under the precondition of obtaining these basic data which are the basic parameters of the storage yards of the harbor district, the flow rate of each egress and ingress sluice gate in the harbor district and the collecting and distributing proportion of a dock roadway, the cargo quantity of each storage yard and the cargo collecting and distributing quantity of the dock roadway are estimated, the attraction intensity of each sluice gate, each storage yard and each dock in the harbor district is analyzed, the selective probability of different travelling routes of different freight process modes is also calculated, the generation and attraction quantity of each OD pair of the harbor district is estimated so as to obtain an OD matrix for the traffic generation and attraction of a port roadway, finally a macroscopic model of the harbor district is constructed by utilizing a VISUM, the OD of the harbor district is inversed according to the measured flow rate, and the relative error of the OD matrix and the OD is compared so as to verify the reliability of model estimation.

Description

Technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the field of traffic planning, in particular to a method for estimating the OD of port road traffic demand based on a freight process. Background technique

[0002] Traffic demand forecasting is one of the core contents in traffic planning, and it is the basis for rational planning of the transportation system. The formulation of transportation development policies, transportation network design and program evaluation are closely related to transportation demand forecasting. In 1962, the "generation-distribution-method division-distribution" prediction method proposed in the traffic planning research of Chicago in the United States marked the formation of the "four-stage" traffic prediction model.

[0003] From the perspective of the development of the traffic demand forecasting model, so far, the traffic demand forecasting model can be divided into three generations. The first generation is the urban traffic planning system model, r...

Images