Power load forecasting method based on customer segmentation in power industry

Abstract

The invention discloses a power load forecasting method based on customer segmentation in power industry. The power load forecasting method comprises: step 1, extracting customer load data and obtaining load sample data; step 2, pre-processing the load sample data; step 3, performing cluster grouping to customer to obtain a plurality of customer groups; step 4, summarizing the load data of the customer groups; step 5, performing load timing sequence forecasting to a single customer group; step 6, summarizing and calculating load forecasting results of the plurality of customer groups; and step 7, evaluating the load forecasting results obtained in the step 6. The power load forecasting method can accurately forecast power load of the customer groups and provides a basis for development and operation of a power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a power load forecasting method in the power industry, in particular to a power load forecasting method based on customer grouping in the power industry. Background technique [0002] Because the power industry is different from other industries in general, its products, that is, electric energy, cannot be stored in large quantities. The production and consumption of electric power must be carried out at the same moment. The construction of power stations is expensive and the construction period is long. The importance of electric energy to various industries in the national economy and people's lives , especially the contradiction between supply and demand in a considerable period of time, all of which make the power load forecasting work particularly important. From a long-term observation, the power load has periodic characteristics, and the load change is continuous, and generally there will be no large jumps; at the same t...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, most of the forecasting application software at home and abroad are based on a few specific models, and the consequence of choosing a single model is that the forecasting results are often only valid for a certain development law. When the development law of things changes, if the original single model is still used model, it will cause the prediction results to deviate too much, thus losing the practical significance of the prediction

Especially for the various power supply companies using the system, due to the different levels of development, different power consumption structures, and great differences in load characteristics, it is difficult for a specific prediction method to exert good results everywhere.

In addition, in the electricity market environment, there are many factors that affect the development of electricity, including economic development, energy consumption, meteorological conditions and many other factors. The effect of power load forecasting on the power consumption side is not ideal

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