Copula-function-based method for acquiring relevant characteristic of wind power plant capacity

Abstract

The invention discloses a copula-function-based method for acquiring relevant characteristics of wind power plant capacities. The method comprising the following steps: acquiring M cumulative distribution functions and cumulative distribution function values of the wind power plant capacity according to a wind power plant capacity sample; acquiring parameters of copula functions by using a maximum likelihood method; determining each copular function according to the parameters; acquiring experience copula function values according to the cumulative distribution functions and the cumulative distribution function values; calculating copula function values corresponding to the cumulative distribution function values according to each copula function; acquiring the Euclidean distances between the copula function values and the experience copula function values according to the copula function values and the experience copula function values; determining a copula function corresponding to the smallest Euclidean distance so as to describe the relevance of the wind power plant capacities; and calculating four relevance coefficients among the wind power plant capacities according to the copula functions and subsequently acquiring the relevance characteristics among the wind power plant capacities.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power generation and distribution, and more specifically relates to a method for obtaining related characteristics of wind farm output based on a copula function. Background technique [0002] With the large-scale development and utilization of wind energy in my country, wind power continues to develop rapidly, and the installed capacity increases rapidly. According to statistics, my country's new wind power installed capacity accounted for 49% of the world's new installed capacity in 2006, up from less than 10% in 2006. As of June 2012, the national grid-connected wind power capacity has reached 52.58 million kilowatts. The uncertainty of wind resources and the operating characteristics of wind turbines make the output power of wind farms intermittent and fluctuating. The connection of large-scale wind power will inevitably bring difficulties to the safe and stable operation of the power system. Th...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the object of the present invention is to provide a method for obtaining the output correlation characteristics of wind farms based on the copula function, aiming at solving the problem of unknown joint probability distribution of multiple wind farms, from Spearman rank correlation coefficient, Kendall rank Correlation coefficient, upper tail correlation coefficient and lower tail correlation coefficient, etc. to more accurately describe the issue of wind farm output correlation

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