A method for predicting the number of straight-left conflicts at level signalized intersections

Abstract

The invention discloses a prediction method of an urban road signalized intersection direct-left conflict number. A plurality of direct-left conflicts and conflict flow of the direct-left conflicts and geometric characteristics of an intersection serve as data base, and an urban road signalized intersection direct-left conflict prediction model is built by aiming at four different traffic operation conditions and utilizing a mechanism generated when a generalized linear model excavates the traffic conflicts. Direct-left conflict frequency in unit time interval is obtained by substituting traffic flow parameters into the model so as to provide evidence for intersection indirect safety evaluation. According to the urban road signalized intersection direct-left conflict number obtaining method based on the direct-left conflict prediction model, traffic conflicts can be predicted by traffic flow which is easy to be collected, the defect and disadvantage that conflict collecting cost is high in present traffic conflict technology are overcome, and the prediction method is more accurate and scientific compared with manual observation conflicts of the prior art and capable of promoting the traffic conflict technology to be applied in engineers.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of traffic management and traffic safety, and relates to a method for predicting the number of straight-left conflicts at signalized intersections, in particular to a method for predicting the number of straight-left conflicts at signalized intersections based on a traffic conflict prediction model. Background technique [0002] With the rapid growth of road mileage and motor vehicle ownership in my country, the road traffic safety situation is becoming increasingly severe. Due to the huge benefits of traffic safety evaluation in reducing accidents and improving road safety, many governments and production and business units have invested huge sums of money in safety evaluation. Traffic safety evaluation methods include direct evaluation method and indirect evaluation method. The safety evaluation of traditional level signalized intersections usually uses the expectation of traffic accident frequency as the...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Purpose of the invention: for the problems and deficiencies in the above-mentioned prior art, the purpose of the invention is to provide a method for predicting the number of straight-left conflicts at signalized intersections. On the basis of obtaining a large amount of traffic conflicts and traffic flow parameter data, contact Conflict occurrence and driving behavior, using negative binomial and Poisson generalized linear models to establish a prediction model of traffic conflict and traffic flow parameters under different traffic conditions, to overcome the defects and shortcomings of the difficulty in collecting traffic conflicts and the inability to obtain the expected value of conflict occurrence based on the collected conflicts

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