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Output power prediction method based on similarity data selection for photovoltaic plant

A technology for output power and photovoltaic power plants, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as insufficient mining of similar historical data and difficulty in improving prediction accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-11-13
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] Aiming at the shortcomings of the photovoltaic output power prediction using the statistical method at present, which is not enough for similar historical data mining and the prediction accuracy is difficult to improve, a method for predicting the output power of photovoltaic power plants based on similar data selection is proposed.

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  • Output power prediction method based on similarity data selection for photovoltaic plant
  • Output power prediction method based on similarity data selection for photovoltaic plant
  • Output power prediction method based on similarity data selection for photovoltaic plant

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Embodiment Construction

[0052] Embodiments of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with accompanying drawings:

[0053] Such as figure 1 As shown, adopting the method of the present invention predicts the photovoltaic output power of a certain photovoltaic power station on November 10, 2012, and the method comprises the following steps:

[0054] Step 1: collect the radiation intensity value, temperature value and actual photovoltaic output power value of the historical day, and the radiation intensity value and temperature value of the predicted day in the weather forecast;

[0055] (1) Collect and predict the historical data of the past N days close to the forecast day, and form a set of radiation intensity vectors:

[0056] I 1n [I 1n (1), I 1n (2),...I 1n (12),I 1n (13)], (n=1...N);

[0057] Wherein, N is set value;

[0058] Then the irradiance intensity value of each full point from 6:00 to 18:00 on the nth day in the past N days near the forecast day is ex...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an output power prediction method based on similarity data selection for a photovoltaic plant, and belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, collecting irradiation intensity values, temperature values and actual photovoltaic output power values of historical days, as well as irradiation intensity values and temperature values of predicted days in weather forecast; step 2, determining weights w1 (i) corresponding to irradiation intensity of all whole points from 6 am to 18 pm every day, and determining weights w2 (i) corresponding to temperature of all whole points from 6 am to 18 pm every day; step 3, performing selection on similar days; step 4, determining weight of power in each similar day during prediction according to the degree of correlation between the similar days and the predicated days; step 5, obtaining a power predication value required in the process that the photovoltaic output is performed in the predicated days through calculation, and performing evaluation on a predicated result. The method can well excavate the correlation between the predicated days and history data, is easy to implement and improves predicated accuracy of the photovoltaic output power.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the output power of a photovoltaic power station based on similar data selection, and belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation. Background technique [0002] As a clean energy, photovoltaic power generation can not only meet the energy demand of economic and social development, but also reduce the pollution of fossil fuels. Therefore, photovoltaic power generation has been vigorously developed day by day, and photovoltaic grid-connected power generation has become the mainstream trend of photovoltaic power generation. However, since photovoltaic power generation is greatly affected by the weather, and cannot be freely controlled like thermal power and hydropower, the output power of photovoltaic power plants has the characteristics of drastic changes and intermittent. The integration of large-scale photovoltaic power plants into the grid will inevitably pose severe challenges to th...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 杨锡运刘欢姜飞飞武晓宁肖运启
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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