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Power system short-term risk determination method taking disaster factors into account

A power system and determination method technology, applied in information technology support systems, electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as disaster factors that cannot be considered in detail, and reduce the probability of large-scale power outages. The level of safety and reliability and the effect of reducing operational risks

Active Publication Date: 2013-12-11
TSINGHUA UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0010] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiency that disaster factors cannot be considered in detail in the existing power system risk assessment, and provide a short-term risk judgment method of power system considering the impact of disaster factors, which can standardize consideration of lightning strikes, ice disasters, bird damage, etc. The impact of various disasters on transmission line faults can help power system dispatchers to accurately identify the short-term operation risk level of the power system in the next week to a few weeks based on forecast information such as weather forecasts, and can give early warning of potential power outages in the power system in time, and then It can be used to arrange the maintenance plan and operation mode of the power system to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the power grid

Method used

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  • Power system short-term risk determination method taking disaster factors into account
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  • Power system short-term risk determination method taking disaster factors into account

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Embodiment

[0141] The present invention uses the IEEE reliability standard test system (IEEE RTS-79) as an example to describe in detail the risk assessment-based power system weak link identification method proposed by the present invention, and to verify the effect achieved by the present invention. IEEE RTS-79 system network diagram such as figure 2 As shown, the system includes 24 nodes, 32 generator sets, and 38 transmission lines, with a maximum load of 2850MW and an installed capacity of 3405MW. In this example, assess the short-term operation risk of the system for a total of 14 days from January 1 to January 14, and the hour-level load curve of the system from January 1 to January 14 is as follows image 3 The generator parameters are shown in Table 1, the load ratio of each bus is shown in Table 2, and the line and transformer parameters are shown in Table 3.

[0142] Table 1 IEEE RTS-79 Generator Parameters

[0143]

[0144]

[0145] Table 2 IEEE RTS-79 bus load ratio...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a power system short-term risk determination method taking disaster factors into account and belongs to the field of power system reliability and risk analysis. The method comprises the steps: geographically dividing regions where disasters causing power system transmission line failure are distributed (disaster regions for short, e.g. regions of lightning strokes, ice disasters, bird hazards and the like); establishing a corresponding relationship between power transmission devices and the disaster regions according to positions of the power transmission devices of a power system and the geographical distribution of the disaster regions; calculating the conditional failure rate of the power transmission devices located in the disaster regions when the disasters occur through carrying out statistics on historical failure of the power transmission devices of the power system and reasons for the historical failure; determining the power outage risk of the power system in a future short term by using power system risk assessment techniques according to weather forecast information and the conditional failure rate of the power transmission devices. By using the method, potential power outage accidents of the power system under disaster weather are warned, and maintenance plans and operating modes for the power system are arranged reasonably, so that large-scale power outage accidents of the power system are prevented.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system reliability and risk analysis, in particular to a short-term risk judgment method for power systems considering disaster factors. Background technique [0002] With the continuous expansion of the interconnection scale of the power grid, the allocation of power resources has been further optimized, but the reliable operation of the power grid has ushered in new challenges. At the beginning of 2008, affected by the continuous low temperature, ice and snow disasters occurred in many provinces and regions in southern my country, causing 36,740 10kV and above power lines and 2016 35kV and above substations to be out of service nationwide, and 10kV and above towers collapsed and damaged 310321 bases, causing more than 33.48 million households (about 110 million people) to lose power, and the direct economic loss reached 151.65 billion yuan. These power outages have had a great impact on economic development...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00G06Q50/06
CPCY02A90/10Y04S10/50
Inventor 张宁康重庆夏清刘静琨黄天恩吴迪辛建波万军彪胡京熊宁
Owner TSINGHUA UNIV
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