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A Method for Predicting the Number of Equipment Failures Based on Degradation Modeling

A technology of equipment failure and prediction method, which is applied in the direction of prediction, data processing application, calculation, etc., can solve the problems of ignoring the operation status of equipment and ignoring the actual operation status of equipment, so as to achieve good engineering application value, avoid economic loss, and save money and expenses Effect

Active Publication Date: 2018-02-06
PLA SECOND ARTILLERY ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In view of the above-mentioned existing technical conditions, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting the number of equipment failures based on degradation modeling, so as to solve the traditional problem of ignoring the actual operating state of the equipment when predicting the number of equipment failures based on failure data
[0005] The basic idea of ​​the present invention is to make full use of the performance degradation data obtained during the performance change process of the product, scientifically predict the remaining life of the individual high-reliability product, and determine the number of equipment failures on this basis to solve the traditional problem of equipment failure based on failure data. The problem of ignoring the actual operating state of the equipment when predicting the number of failures

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  • A Method for Predicting the Number of Equipment Failures Based on Degradation Modeling
  • A Method for Predicting the Number of Equipment Failures Based on Degradation Modeling

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Embodiment

[0049]The method for predicting the number of equipment failures based on degradation modeling of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0050] Step 1: Establish a performance degradation model of the equipment

[0051] The degradation model based on the Wiener process is a typical linear stochastic model describing the stochastic degradation process of equipment, that is, the performance degradation rate of equipment can be approximated as a constant. According to formula (1), describe the stochastic degradation process {X(t), t≥0} based on the Wiener process;

[0052] Step 2: Estimation of parameters in the performance degradation model

[0053] According to formula (2), (3) estimated at t k The maximum likelihood values ​​of time λ and σ;

[0054] Depend on figure 2 Visible, adopt the method of the present invention, can well predict the gyroscope degradation trend;

[0055] Step 3: Remaining Life Prediction

[0056] According to the formula (4) and (...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for predicting equipment failure times based on degradation modeling. Make full use of the performance degradation data obtained during the performance change process of the product to predict the remaining life of high-reliability products; determine the number of equipment failures; optimize the management of spare parts by predicting the number of equipment failures. Including: establishing the performance degradation model of the equipment; estimating the parameters in the performance degradation model; predicting the remaining life; and predicting the number of equipment failures. Compared with the existing technology, it can not only predict and analyze the characteristic quantities of the individual remaining life of the product and the overall reliability life, but also can be used as an effective analysis tool for predicting the remaining life of the product and the number of failures. The determination of the ordering strategy provides a strong theoretical basis and technical support, thereby saving money and avoiding unnecessary economic losses, and has good engineering application value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability engineering and relates to a method for predicting the number of equipment failures based on degradation modeling. Background technique [0002] The current research on spare parts management is based on the prediction of the number of equipment failures, and then the optimal inventory management is carried out under the condition that the prediction has been made, so as to improve the operation reliability of the equipment. But the inaccurate prediction is a common problem. However, for large As far as most equipment is concerned, the demand for spare parts is intermittent. One piece may not be needed for a long time, but several pieces may be needed at a time. This brings great difficulties to the prediction based on historical consumption. It is worth noting that , most of the previous studies have ignored an important causal relationship: the demand for spare parts is due to equipment fail...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
Inventor 胡昌华司小胜何华锋周涛蔡光斌张建勋
Owner PLA SECOND ARTILLERY ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY
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