Wind power forecast method and device based on self-adaptation bee colony algorithm

Abstract

The invention provides a wind power forecast method and device based on a self-adaptation bee colony algorithm. The wind power forecast method comprises the steps that (1) wind speed and wind power data are normalized, and a support vector machine is used for establishing a prediction module in a regression mode; (2) parameters to be optimized and a fitness function are selected, positions of bees and nectar sources are initialized, and a uniform distribution function is called to be assigned to the positions of bees; (3) lgx logarithm transformation is carried out on a bee searching space, and the yield of each food source is calculated; (4) neighborhood searching is carried out, and self-adaptation weight coefficient adjustment is carried out; (5) whether the condition of convergence is met, if yes, the step (6) is executed, and if not, the step (3) is repeated; (6) the optimized parameters are obtained, and the prediction model is updated; (7) wind power measurement data are used for training the updated prediction model and carrying out prediction, and the prediction result is obtained. The wind power forecast method and device based on the self-adaptation bee colony algorithm effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the output power of a wind turbine generator, and improve the stability and economy of a wind power integration grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind power forecasting, in particular to a short-term wind power forecasting method and device based on an adaptive bee colony algorithm to optimize SVR. Background technique [0002] In recent years, wind energy, as a renewable energy, has developed rapidly around the world. As of December 2012, the world's installed wind power capacity has increased from 60GW in 2000 to 282.578GW, and it is expected that the world's installed wind power capacity will reach 460GW by 2015. With the rapid development of wind power, grid connection has become a research hotspot for making full use of wind power. The output power of wind power depends on the wind speed. However, due to the uncertainty and intermittency of wind speed, it is bound to have a serious impact on the stability of the power grid. [0003] In order to improve the utilization rate of wind power and enhance the stability and economy of wind power gri...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The output power of wind power depends on the wind speed. However, due to the uncertainty and intermittency of wind speed, it is bound to have a serious impact on the stability of the power grid.

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