Forecasting method of industrial power-consumption intensity based on economic development mode transition
A technology for forecasting industrial power consumption and intensity, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems that cannot reflect the impact of power consumption, and achieve accurate prediction results
Inactive Publication Date: 2015-05-06
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology
[0003] The current power load forecasting method is mainly modeled by fitting historical load data, which cannot reflect the impact of the transformation of economic development mode on power consumption
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[0025] The invention provides a method for predicting the intensity of industrial power consumption, which is based on the impact of the transformation of the economic development mode on the intensity of industrial power consumption, so that the prediction result is more accurate.
[0026] Next, the specific implementation of the present invention will be further described by taking the prediction of the target annual industrial power consumption intensity in Anhui Province as an example.
[0027] Taking 2013 as the base period to calculate the industrial power consumption intensity of various industries from 2000 to 2013, it can be found that the industrial power consumption intensity of various industries basically shows a downward trend year by year. Among them, non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry, chemical fiber manufacturing industry, non-metallic mineral mining and dressing industry, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry, water prod...
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The invention provides a forecasting method of the industrial power-consumption intensity based on economic development mode transition. The forecasting method of the industrial power-consumption intensity based on the economic development mode transition includes: obtaining the historical data of industrial power consumption and industrial added values; taking the base year comparable price as the base and calculating the industrial power-consumption intensity of each year in historical sample intervals; calculating the industrial added value proportion of the four industries of the industrial departments of each year in the historical sample intervals; building a forecasting regression model of industrial power-consumption intensity of the target year and conducting a fitting test on the regression model; and conducting trend extrapolation by combining the government planning objectives, obtaining the proportion of the four industries of the target year and substituting the models to forecast the industrial power-consumption intensity of the target year. Through the building of the regression model of the proportion between the industrial power-consumption intensity and the industrial added values of the four industries of the industrial department, the forecasting method for the industrial power-consumption intensity based on the economic development mode transition considers the influence of the industrial structure and the policy factors on the industrial power-consumption intensity, forecasts the industrial power-consumption intensity of the target year, and improves the forecast accuracy.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of industrial power consumption prediction technology, in particular to an industrial power consumption prediction method based on the transformation of economic development mode. Background technique [0002] Power load forecasting is an important basic work in the power system, which is closely related to the planning, design, production, operation and power market transactions of the power system. There are many factors affecting the power load, mainly including economic development level, industrial structure, climatic conditions, etc. It is possible to change the economic development mode and adjust the impact of industrial structure on industrial power consumption intensity through research, so as to predict industrial power consumption. [0003] The current power load forecasting method is mainly modeled by fitting historical load data, which cannot reflect the impact of the transformation of economic...
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Login to View More IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 叶彬李周王宝杨敏葛斐
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA