Personalized user short-term load forecasting algorithm based on decision-making tree

Abstract

The invention discloses a personalized user short-term load forecasting algorithm based on a decision-making tree. The algorithm is characterized in that the algorithm comprises the following steps: carrying out fluctuating component identification on user load, and judging whether the sawtooth fluctuation thereof is obvious; if so, entering a fluctuating component extraction step, and then, obtaining power consumption mode number; and if not, directly obtaining the power consumption mode number. For the user, of whom the power consumption mode number is larger than 7, a nearest daily load forecasting method is adopted; for the user, of whom the power consumption mode number is within the range of 2-6, a user side short-term load forecasting method based on power consumption mode excavation is adopted; and for the user, of whom the power consumption mode number is only 1, a cluster forecast reduction method is adopted. According to the algorithm, by carrying out data mining on historical load of the user, the power consumption modes of the user are extracted; the personalized user short-term load forecasting algorithm is established according to the number of the power consumption modes; and therefore, accurate user short-period load prediction is realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system demand side management, in particular to a short-term load forecasting algorithm for personalized users based on a decision tree. Background technique [0002] Orderly use of electricity is an important part of demand-side management, which refers to the control of part of the demand for electricity in accordance with the law through administrative measures, economic means, and technical methods under the circumstances of insufficient power supply and emergencies, and maintains the order of power supply and consumption. management work. After the reform and opening up, the country's economy has accelerated and the supply and demand of electricity have been tense, so orderly electricity consumption has played an important role. [0003] Intelligent and orderly power consumption automatically generates an orderly power consumption plan by using intelligent agent technology by analyzing the user load cha...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At this stage, only the short-term load forecasting of the system and the short-term busbar have been achieved, while the user load forecasting has not yet been carried out in depth.

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