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Ocean platform multi-stage task system reliability estimation method based on data drive

An offshore platform, data-driven technology, applied in electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, computing, etc., can solve problems such as lack of safety monitoring and reliability prediction data mining, waste of resources, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2016-03-23
QINGDAO AGRI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, these data are currently only used for simple detection and reporting, lacking in-depth data mining such as production-oriented safety monitoring and reliability prediction, resulting in waste of resources

Method used

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  • Ocean platform multi-stage task system reliability estimation method based on data drive
  • Ocean platform multi-stage task system reliability estimation method based on data drive
  • Ocean platform multi-stage task system reliability estimation method based on data drive

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Embodiment Construction

[0071] The embodiments of the present invention will be further described below.

[0072] In order not to lose generality, taking the offshore platform three-stage task system as an example, a data-driven offshore platform reliability estimation method according to an embodiment of the present invention, the steps are as follows:

[0073] Step 1: Detect the environment of the system through the sensor, comprehensively utilize the system environment monitoring data observed by the sensor, establish the connection between the historical data of the individual three-stage mission system and the current real-time data information, and use the random filtering model to carry out the stage interval Modeling, obtaining the three-stage task process model, estimating the probability density function of the task time, and further obtaining the task time estimation value of the three-stage task system.

[0074] Assuming that the offshore oil and gas development mission of the offshore pl...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an ocean platform multi-stage task system reliability estimation method based on data drive. The estimation method mainly includes the steps that a multi-stage task process model is established, and a probability density function of task time is estimated; a system degenerative process model is established, and the residual life is estimated; according to the reliability definition of the multi-stage task process model and the system degenerative model, system reliability parameter values are obtained through real-time calculation through the task time estimated value and the system service life estimated value. Through measured sensor data, the relation between historical data of an individual multi-stage task system and current real-time data information is established, reliability parameters of the multi-stage task system under the dynamic condition are accurately estimated in real time, and the problem that an existing method is only suitable for static hypothesis and a specific system is solved. The reliability parameters of the ocean platform multi-stage task system are accurately estimated in real time, the system is effectively maintained in real time, the maintenance cost of the system is reduced, and catastrophic faults are effectively avoided.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of reliability engineering, and in particular relates to a method for estimating the reliability of an ocean platform multi-stage task system. Background technique [0002] Offshore platforms are complex equipment systems used to complete offshore oil and gas development. Usually, complex systems such as offshore platforms need to go through multiple stages when completing specific tasks, and the degradation characteristics of each stage are different. In the existing literature research results , this type of system is called a multi-stage mission system. The basic characteristics of the multi-stage task system are: multiple, continuous within stages, and non-overlapping stages. In different continuous time periods (that is, stages), the system completes different stage tasks, so the structural reliability of each stage of the system is also different. For the offshore platform system, the completion of o...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 李娟冯磊司小胜陈秀荣张宝琳徐树生张鹏
Owner QINGDAO AGRI UNIV
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