Risk control method for offshore platform spud can foundation installation based on Bayesian theory
A Bayesian theory and offshore platform technology, applied in the field of risk assessment and control of offshore drilling platform installation, can solve the problem of not considering the complexity of seabed geological conditions, and achieve the effect of real-time update of prediction results
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[0074] In this example, the schematic diagram and flow chart of the risk control method for the installation of the pile shoe foundation of the offshore platform based on the Bayesian theory are as follows: Figure 1 to Figure 4 shown. This example is selected from a set of model experiments. The parameters of the pile shoe foundation and soil parameters are shown in Table 1, and the monitoring data are shown in Table 2.
[0075] Table 1 Example parameter table
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[0077] Table 2 Monitoring data (loading) table
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[0080] First, according to the calculation model of the load and depth of the puncture failure of the pile shoe foundation, the possible failure load and depth values, as well as the edge probability and the prior probability, are calculated. Next, determine the load-insertion depth model for the foundation in sand. Combined with monitoring data and prior probability, each group of monitoring points and forecast points is given a sa...
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