Risk control method for offshore platform spud can foundation installation based on Bayesian theory

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of ocean geotechnical engineering, in particular to a risk control method for establishing a load and depth prediction model of puncture damage for installation of an ocean platform pile shoe foundation and updating predicted results in real time based on the Bayesian theory. The method is based on the Bayesian theory, uncertainty of parameters of sandy soil and clay, the shape of the pile shoe foundation and the like, measuring errors and other factors are comprehensively considered, the novel method for predicting puncture damage is provided, and risk control is conducted for installation of the pile shoe foundation in a seabed where the soft clay is laid under the sandy soil. Complex seabed geological conditions are considered, and the load and depth range of puncture damage probably happening to the pile shoe foundation in the seabed where the soft clay is laid under the sandy soil is predicted. Along with increase of monitoring data, the predicted damage range is constantly narrowed and is approximate to a truth value, and the predicted results can be updated in real time and are more precise. The method can be applied to installation of a self-elevating petroleum drilling platform foundation and has great significance for engineering.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of marine geotechnical engineering, in particular to a method for establishing a load and depth prediction model for puncture failure based on Bayesian theory for the installation of pile shoe foundations of an offshore platform, and updating the prediction results in real time for risk control, which can be applied Risk assessment and control for installation on offshore drilling platforms. Background technique [0002] With the development of the offshore oil industry, various offshore mobile drilling platforms are active in various sea areas of the world, and jack-up drilling platforms are one of the main carriers of offshore oil and gas exploration. Before the normal operation of the jack-up drilling platform, pre-compression stress should be applied to the pile boot foundation, so that the platform will not be damaged when it encounters storms and other loads during the work. When the drilling platform is in pla...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, most of the achievements are in the risk control of double-layer clay, but the site investigation shows that the distribution of the seabed soil layer is the soft clay layer under the sand, which also accounts for a large proportion, and the research on the soft clay layer under the sand is only Limited to predicting a definite puncture failure point, without considering the complexity of seabed geological conditions

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