Ocean platform pile shoe foundation installing risk control method based on Bayesian theory

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of ocean geotechnical engineering, in particular to a risk control method for establishing a load and depth prediction model of puncture damage for installation of an ocean platform pile shoe foundation and updating predicted results in real time based on the Bayesian theory. The method is based on the Bayesian theory, uncertainty of parameters of sandy soil and clay, the shape of the pile shoe foundation and the like, measuring errors and other factors are comprehensively considered, the novel method for predicting puncture damage is provided, and risk control is conducted for installation of the pile shoe foundation in a seabed where the soft clay is laid under the sandy soil. Complex seabed geological conditions are considered, and the load and depth range of puncture damage probably happening to the pile shoe foundation in the seabed where the soft clay is laid under the sandy soil is predicted. Along with increase of monitoring data, the predicted damage range is constantly narrowed and is approximate to a truth value, and the predicted results can be updated in real time and are more precise. The method can be applied to installation of a self-elevating petroleum drilling platform foundation and has great significance for engineering.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of marine geotechnical engineering, in particular to a method based on Bayesian theory to establish a puncture damage load and depth prediction model for the installation of pile shoe foundations on offshore platforms, and to update the prediction results in real time for risk control, which can be applied Risk assessment and control for installation on offshore drilling platforms. Background technique [0002] With the development of the offshore oil industry, various offshore mobile drilling platforms are active in the seas of the world, and the jack-up drilling platform is one of the main carriers of offshore oil and gas exploration. Before the jack-up drilling platform is in normal operation, pre-compression stress should be applied to the spud can foundation, so that the platform will not be damaged when it encounters loads such as storms during work. When the drilling platform is in place, the pile feet...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, most of the achievements are in the risk control of double-layer clay, but the site investigation shows that the distribution of the seabed soil layer is the soft clay layer under the sand, which also accounts for a large proportion, and the research on the soft clay layer under the sand is only Limited to predicting a definite puncture failure point, without considering the complexity of seabed geological conditions

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