Seasonal Electricity Prediction Method and System
A forecasting method and forecasting system technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., to achieve the effect of promoting effective utilization
Active Publication Date: 2018-03-30
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD +1
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Problems solved by technology
In fact, the user's electricity consumption has both linear growth and seasonal fluctuations, and the change of the user's electricity consumption presents complex nonlinear characteristics. It is difficult to accurately predict the user's seasonal electricity demand using the above method
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[0023] In order to make the object, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present invention, and do not limit the protection scope of the present invention.
[0024] In one embodiment, the seasonal power consumption prediction method, such as figure 1 shown, including the following steps:
[0025] Step S101: Calculate the monthly average daily electricity consumption of the residents of the preset area in each month of the preset year according to the monthly electricity consumption of the residents in the preset area in each month of the preset year;
[0026] Step S102: Determine the seasonal electricity consumption month of the preset year for the residents of the preset area according to the monthly average daily power con...
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The invention discloses a seasonal electric power utilization predicting method and a seasonal electric power utilization predicting system. The seasonal electric power utilization predicting method is characterized in that monthly daily power consumption of every month of a preset year of residents in a preset area is calculated according to the monthly power consumption of every month of the preset year of the residents in the preset sear; seasonal electric power utilization months of the preset year of the residents in the preset area are determined according to the monthly daily power consumption; according to the seasonal electric power utilization months, the actual power consumption of the seasonal electric power utilization months of the preset year of the residents in the preset area, and the reference monthly daily power consumption of the residents in the preset area, the seasonal power consumption of the preset year of the residents in the preset area is calculated; the seasonal electric power utilization influencing factors of the preset area are determined according to electric power utilization characteristics of the residents in the preset area and temperatures; according to the seasonal power consumption of the preset year of the residents in the preset area and the seasonal electric power utilization influencing factors of the preset area, the seasonal electric power consumption of the residents in the preset area is predicted. The seasonal electric power utilization of the residents is predicted, and effective data support is provided for electricity market analysis and power grid planning.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of analysis and prediction of residential power consumption, in particular to a seasonal power consumption prediction method and system. Background technique [0002] Electricity is a secondary energy closely related to social production and life, it is the support of economic development, and the guarantee of residents' life. Therefore, electricity energy consumption and economic development are inseparable. Power energy demand analysis and prediction methods include time series model, gray forecasting method, trend analysis method, etc., among which time series model such as ARIMA model is based on the total energy consumption in the historical period and considers random error items for prediction. The trend analysis method also discovers the law from the historical data, and uses linear, curve and other models to make fitting predictions. The gray forecasting method also only uses historical data to fo...
Claims
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 陈政冷媛张翔宋艺航傅蔷蒙文川席云华王玲邢胜男孙露
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD