Imprecise condition estimation method for outage probability of power equipment

Abstract

The invention discloses an imprecise condition estimation method for an outage probability of power equipment. The method comprises the steps of taking related running condition factors, which influence a running state of the power equipment, as sub-nodes, taking the running state of the power equipment as a father node, and constructing a reliability network of equipment outage probability estimation; calculating prior probabilities of the power equipment in different running states and a condition reliability set corresponding to the sub-nodes according to related running condition history data of the power equipment; and implementing probabilistic reasoning based on the prior probabilities and the condition reliability set corresponding to the sub-nodes in the reliability network according to equipment running conditions given in a target time segment of estimation, and finally obtaining an imprecise condition estimation result of the outage probability of the power equipment under the running conditions given in the target time segment of estimation. According to the method disclosed by the invention, an important basic parameter estimation means can be provided for assessing the running reliability of a power system lack of historical statistic data; and the method has wide application potential.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric equipment reliability assessment, in particular to an inaccurate condition estimation method for the outage probability of electric equipment, and the method is suitable for exposed equipment. Background technique [0002] Power system operation reliability assessment technology can estimate the probability of accidents and their consequences in a specified period of time in the future, which is of great significance in quantifying the reliability level of system operation and preventing system operation risks. As the basic elements of the power system, power equipment is analyzed to analyze the factors that lead to its outage and predict its outage probability. [0003] In actual operation, there are many factors that cause the outage of power equipment, which can be roughly divided into four categories: (1) factors of the equipment itself, such as equipment aging, production defects, etc.; (2) factors af...

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Problems solved by technology

The above research on the estimation of equipment condition-dependent reliability parameters is of reference significance. However, for limited operating conditions, the available outage samples are relatively scarce, and it is difficult to estimate the reliability parameters accurately. The above work does not reflect how to quantitatively analyze Uncertainty in Estimation of Equipment Operational Reliability Parameters

[0006] On the other hand, "few statistical samples and long statistical period" has always been a difficult problem in the estimation of power equipment reliability parameters, and most of the existing estimation methods are aimed at modeling the reliability level of long-term operation of equipment, which does not reflect the The time-varying characteristics of equipment outage in the short term according to its operating conditions; and when the sample size is too small, it is difficult to obtain reliable estimation results

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