Method for determining reliability growth trend of railway vehicle and predicting fault rate
A rail vehicle and reliability technology, which is applied in the field of system or component reliability growth trend judgment and failure rate prediction, can solve the problems that cannot be given quantitatively and cannot infer the effectiveness of management, etc., and achieve the effect of good market prospects
Inactive Publication Date: 2017-03-08
CRRC NANJING PUZHEN CO LTD
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However, the reliability growth trend based on this is only obtained through qualitative and intuitive judgments, and cannot be given quantitatively. Moreover, due to the sporadic nature of rail vehicle failures, the reliability of rail vehicles often does not change in one direction; at the same time, the passive tracking method is adopted , and it is also impossible to infer the effectiveness of management based on this reliability growth management method, so that the rail vehicle can reach the specified reliability performance to meet the requirements of technical specifications within the expected time
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[0050] Below in conjunction with example the present invention is described in further detail. However, the invention is not limited to the examples given.
[0051] The technical specification of a certain urban rail transit project stipulates that: from the second year (that is, 366 days) after the train is put into commercial operation, the mean time between failures (MTBF) of the train should not be less than 200 hours. And the faults found in the daily inspection by maintenance personnel. It is stipulated in the technical specification that the trains run 18 hours a day.
[0052] After the train is put into operation, the internal fault statistics of the train are as follows:
[0053]
[0054] According to the second step, the third step and the fourth step, the data are arranged in the following table:
[0055]
[0056] The fifth step is to calculate the reliability growth factor a t
[0057] Substitute the data into the formula:
[0058] The reliability gro...
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The invention relates to a method for determining the reliability growth trend of a railway vehicle and predicting a fault rate, and the method comprises the steps: quantitatively giving a reliability growth coefficient according to the stage fault and operation information of the railway vehicle in operation, and judging that the reliability growth trend of the railway vehicle is increase, constant or decrease according to the reliability growth coefficient. The method can quantitatively calculate the subsequent one time point of the railway vehicle, can quantitatively determine whether the subsequent performance of the railway vehicle can meet the requirements of a technical standard or not according to the reliability performance which can be achieved by a current reliability growth mechanism, determines a subsequent working method according to the conformity, determines whether there is a need to change a conventional reliability growth management mechanism or not, and guarantees the achieving of a reliability target of the railway vehicle. However, a conventional method cannot judge whether the subsequent performance of the railway vehicle can meet the requirements of the technical standard so as to determine whether to improve the reliability growth mechanism.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for determining a reliability growth trend and predicting a failure rate by counting rail vehicle stage faults, and belongs to the technical field of system or component reliability growth trend judgment and failure rate prediction. Background technique [0002] The technical specifications of rail vehicles have reliability index regulations, which require rail vehicles to be put into operation or meet the specified requirements after the specified reliability growth period. During the reliability assessment period, statistical analysis of rail vehicle failures is performed, and reliability analysis reports are provided to meet the technical specifications. Require. [0003] At present, the reliability compliance of rail vehicles is passively tracked. During the assessment period of rail vehicles, the faults are counted and analyzed whether they meet the technical specifications. Mean time to failure (MTBF) compares t...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/0631G06Q50/26
Inventor 薛淑胜盛银胜冷映丽朱爱凤张恒万宏伟
Owner CRRC NANJING PUZHEN CO LTD
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