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Hilly region hydrological forecasting model and data precision matching method based on uncertainty analysis

A technology of uncertainty and data accuracy, which is applied in the field of matching of hydrological forecast model and data accuracy in hilly areas based on uncertainty analysis, can solve the problems of lack, large difference, and influence on the simulation accuracy of the hydrological model of the basin, and achieve effective suggestions and reference, the effect of improving forecast accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2017-07-14
DALIAN UNIV OF TECH +1
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Problems solved by technology

Wu Jun et al. used five different resolutions of DEM data to simulate the runoff process of the watershed, and obtained that the watershed characteristics (river length and slope, etc.) extracted from the analysis and extraction of DEM data with different resolutions are quite different, which will affect the watershed hydrological model to varying degrees. The simulation accuracy of
The research on the uncertainty of hydrological simulation mentioned above is mainly aimed at estimating the uncertainty of a certain data input, but the uncertainty of the hydrological model has multiple sources, and the uncertainties of different sources are different from each other and affect each other. Uncertainty Research Considering Multiple Data Sources

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  • Hilly region hydrological forecasting model and data precision matching method based on uncertainty analysis
  • Hilly region hydrological forecasting model and data precision matching method based on uncertainty analysis
  • Hilly region hydrological forecasting model and data precision matching method based on uncertainty analysis

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Embodiment Construction

[0048] Based on the research on the uncertainty of the input of the existing models, the present invention proposes a method for matching the accuracy of the hydrological forecast model and data in hilly areas based on the uncertainty analysis.

[0049] The present invention will be further described below through the embodiments and in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0050] The Luanchuan River Basin is located in Luanchuan County in the southwest of Henan Province, with a controlled drainage area of ​​343km 2 , belongs to the small watershed in the hilly area, the annual rainfall is unevenly distributed, and heavy rains occur frequently, often in late July and early August. The floods caused by heavy rains rise and fall steeply, with short duration, high peaks, and strong suddenness. Not easy to prevent, prone to disasters. Taking this area as an example to study the uncertainty of the hydrological model, the specific steps are as follows:

[0051] The first s...

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Abstract

The invention provides a hilly region hydrological forecasting model and data precision matching method based on uncertainty analysis. The method comprises the steps that (1) the influence of a certain type of data precision on simulation is analyzed; and (2) based on analysis of the influence of a single type of data precision on a hydrological simulation result, the data precision with a large influence on the result is selected, a variance decomposition method ANOVA is adopted to quantize contributions of many data types to uncertainty of the simulation result during hydrological simulation, the source influencing the uncertainty of the simulation result is recognized, and a hydrological forecasting model and data precision matching scheme is found. According to the method, factors influencing the uncertainty of a hydrological model are considered comprehensively, and the variance decomposition method ANOVA is successfully applied to hydrological model uncertainty research; service is provided for comprehensively knowing the essential and inherent law of hydrological model uncertainty, and a more effective suggestion and reference are provided for mountain flood disaster forecasting and early warning work.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of flood forecasting in hilly areas, and relates to a method for matching accuracy of hydrological forecasting models and data in hilly areas based on uncertainty analysis. Background technique [0002] Hydrological simulation and prediction technology provides a powerful means for basin flood forecasting and early warning, but the randomness of hydrological variables, the spatio-temporal variability of model parameters, and their matching relationship with hydrological models still bring great uncertainty to the application of hydrological models This will limit the reliability and practical value of simulation prediction results. How to reduce the uncertainty of hydrological simulation prediction has become a prominent problem in hydrological simulation and prediction technology. [0003] Since the 1990s, the research on the uncertainty of hydrological models has developed rapidly, and it is still a resear...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00Y02A10/40
Inventor 叶磊刘昌军李昱常清睿吴剑张弛翟晓燕张淼
Owner DALIAN UNIV OF TECH
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