An Uncertainty-Based Matching Method of Hydrological Model and Data Accuracy in Hilly Areas

Abstract

The invention provides a hilly region hydrological forecasting model and data precision matching method based on uncertainty analysis. The method comprises the steps that (1) the influence of a certain type of data precision on simulation is analyzed; and (2) based on analysis of the influence of a single type of data precision on a hydrological simulation result, the data precision with a large influence on the result is selected, a variance decomposition method ANOVA is adopted to quantize contributions of many data types to uncertainty of the simulation result during hydrological simulation, the source influencing the uncertainty of the simulation result is recognized, and a hydrological forecasting model and data precision matching scheme is found. According to the method, factors influencing the uncertainty of a hydrological model are considered comprehensively, and the variance decomposition method ANOVA is successfully applied to hydrological model uncertainty research; service is provided for comprehensively knowing the essential and inherent law of hydrological model uncertainty, and a more effective suggestion and reference are provided for mountain flood disaster forecasting and early warning work.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of flood forecasting in hilly areas, and relates to an uncertainty-based method for matching a hydrological model and data accuracy in hilly areas. Background technique [0002] Hydrological simulation and prediction technologies provide powerful means for flood forecasting and early warning in river basins, but the randomness of hydrological variables, the temporal and spatial variability of model parameters, and their matching relationship with hydrological models still bring great uncertainty to the application of hydrological models This will limit the reliability and practical value of simulation prediction results. How to reduce the uncertainty of hydrological simulation prediction has become a prominent problem in hydrological simulation and prediction technology. [0003] Since the 1990s, the research on the uncertainty of hydrological models has developed rapidly, and it is still a frontier and hot topic. ...

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Problems solved by technology

Wu Jun et al. used five different resolutions of DEM data to simulate the runoff process of the watershed, and obtained that the watershed characteristics (river length and slope, etc.) extracted from the analysis and extraction of DEM data with different resolutions are quite different, which will affect the watershed hydrological model to varying degrees. The simulation accuracy of

The research on the uncertainty of hydrological simulation mentioned above is mainly aimed at estimating the uncertainty of a certain data input, but the uncertainty of the hydrological model has multiple sources, and the uncertainties of different sources are different from each other and affect each other. Uncertainty Research Considering Multiple Data Sources

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