History case information-based earthquake disaster death population estimation method and device
A basic information and historical technology, applied in the field of earthquake disaster death population estimation, can solve the problem of low accuracy of death population data, and achieve the effect of accurate and high-precision death population
Inactive Publication Date: 2017-09-22
MIN OF CIVIL AFFAIRS NAT DISASTER REDUCTION CENT +1
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The gap between the empirical value and the actual number of deaths caused by the earthquake is sometimes relatively large. Therefore, the accuracy of the number of deaths calculated by the earthquake disaster death population estimation model is low
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[0045] Since 1994, my country has accumulated a large number of earthquake case data in different regions and at different times, and earthquake disasters have the characteristics of frequent occurrence, frequent occurrence, and spatial concentration. Therefore, the accumulated information of these historical earthquake cases can be used to analyze new Estimates of the death toll caused by earthquakes.
[0046] The population death caused by earthquake disasters is not only related to the characteristics of the earthquake itself, such as magnitude, focal depth, epicenter location, and time of earthquake, but also related to the population structure information and environmental condition information of the place where the earthquake occurred. Wherein, the population structure may include population density and age structure.
[0047] The environmental condition information may include house structure information, disaster hidden danger point information, and traffic information...
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The invention discloses a history case information-based earthquake disaster death population estimation method and device. The method comprises the following steps of: searching similar earthquakes similar to a to-be-estimated earthquake in a pre-established history case library by utilizing earthquake information of the to-be-estimated earthquake; calculating similarities between the to-be-estimated earthquake and the similar earthquakes; and finally estimating a death population of the to-be-estimated earthquake according to death populations of the similar earthquakes and the similarities between the to-be-estimated earthquake and the similar earthquakes. Through the estimation method provided by the invention, the obtained death population of the to-be-estimated earthquake is obtained on the basis of the history similar earthquake cases, and the death population of the history similar earthquake cases are correct, so that the death population of the to-be-estimated earthquake is relatively correct; and in the estimation process, the similarities between the to-be-estimated earthquake and the similar earthquakes are considered, so that the death population obtained through estimating the similarities between the to-be-estimated earthquake and the similar earthquakes is relatively correct, and the accuracy is relatively high.
Description
technical field [0001] The present application relates to the field of earthquake disasters, in particular to a method and device for estimating the death population of earthquake disasters based on historical case information. Background technique [0002] Earthquake disasters occur frequently in our country, causing a large number of deaths. The Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 killed 69,227 people, the Yushu earthquake in 2010 killed 2,698 people, and the Ludian earthquake in 2014 killed 615 people. In the early stage of an earthquake disaster, the estimation of the death population is of great significance for assessing the severity of the disaster, formulating a reasonable rescue plan, and dispatching disaster relief materials. [0003] The existing earthquake death population estimation is based on the earthquake disaster death population estimation model. However, this earthquake disaster death population estimation model is based on the experience modeling of earthquake...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/30G06Q50/26
CPCG06F16/3331G06Q50/26
Inventor 杨思全和海霞李素菊李儒刘明吴玮王平汤童李仪
Owner MIN OF CIVIL AFFAIRS NAT DISASTER REDUCTION CENT