A forecasting method of regional traffic index in daily dimension considering the influence of multiple factors

A technology of traffic index and forecasting method, which is applied in traffic flow detection, forecasting, data processing applications, etc., and can solve the problem of being unable to provide industry managers with a forward-looking overall grasp of road network operating conditions, few forecasting applications, and insufficient consideration of traffic flow operation Various factors of the state and other issues

Active Publication Date: 2021-02-02
BEIJING UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

Medium and long-term forecasting applications are seldom used, and thus cannot serve industry managers' forward-looking overall grasp of road network operation status in a long period of time in the future
At the same time, the division of factors affecting road network status is not fine enough, and various factors that may affect the operation status of traffic flow have not been fully considered.

Method used

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  • A forecasting method of regional traffic index in daily dimension considering the influence of multiple factors
  • A forecasting method of regional traffic index in daily dimension considering the influence of multiple factors
  • A forecasting method of regional traffic index in daily dimension considering the influence of multiple factors

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Embodiment Construction

[0088]The present invention selects the regional traffic index of Beijing International Trade Center as the prediction object, and uses the medium and long-term regional traffic index prediction method based on decision tree theory to predict the traffic index of the region from April 17 to 23, 2017, and the morning and evening peak indexes Perform model accuracy verification.

[0089]The specific implementation steps are as follows:

[0090]Step 1. Divide the focus area;

[0091]Comprehensive consideration of factors such as the nature of land use, administrative divisions, natural landforms, road network structure, etc., without breaking the administrative divisions and using natural partitions such as rivers and railways as the boundaries of the traffic districts, Beijing is divided into 1911 traffic districts . Taking into account the large difference in traffic demand between the inner and outer ring areas of the city, the degree of fineness of the traffic districts is also different, s...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a daily-dimension regional traffic index prediction method considering the influence of multiple factors, including: dividing and aggregating regions; preprocessing the original data of the regional traffic index; considering the influence of multiple factors, predicting the regional traffic index in the daily dimension. The specific technical solution of the present invention is: on the basis of the division of traffic areas, aggregate the traffic areas with the same agglomeration properties, and calculate the regional traffic index; determine the forecast period and forecast period based on the road network operation early warning requirements; Data extraction, supplementation, elimination, comprehensive construction of historical data factor attribute sets from different perspectives and other preprocessing; based on the decision tree theory, regional road network operation congestion status prediction; using the square Euclidean distance to determine the final prediction result of the regional traffic index. On the one hand, this method deepens the monitoring application of the urban road network operation status, and on the other hand provides technical support for the early warning and forecasting of the road network operation status.

Description

Technical field[0001]The invention relates to a daily-dimensional regional traffic index prediction method considering the influence of multiple factors, and belongs to the fields of traffic data mining applications and traffic information prediction.Background technique[0002]With the improvement of traffic informatization and intelligence, cities and regions have realized traffic operation monitoring in different scopes and contents, providing powerful support services to ensure the safe, efficient and green operation of the traffic system. Under the premise of having massive monitoring data, how to shift from passive monitoring of traffic operation status to more proactive early warning, prediction and corresponding management and control measures have become the core issue of increasing concern for industry authorities. Urban road network is the bloodline of an urban traffic road system. If the operation efficiency of the road network is low, the normal operation of the city and ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01G06Q10/04
Inventor 翁剑成邸小建林鹏飞王晶晶付宇毛力增
Owner BEIJING UNIV OF TECH
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