Meteorological-factor-considered method for evaluating photovoltaic-power-station grid-connected risk

Abstract

The invention discloses a meteorological-factor-considered method for evaluating the photovoltaic-power-station grid-connected risk. The method includes the steps that a clustering feature vector is formed by meteorological indexes, photovoltaic historical output data is subjected to clustering analysis, and a photovoltaic-power-station output power probability model of the meteorological factorsis established; then according to an element outage model, transfer sequences of a photovoltaic power station and a common electric generator in the running, derating and outage states are extracted;an outage-model-contained photovoltaic output power sequence, an outage-model-contained common electric generator sequence and a load sequence are superposed according to time sequences, a usable margin model of a system is obtained, loads of a negative margin need to be suitably cut down, and light of a positive margin needs to be suitably discarded; the load loss risk and a power-supply loss risk index are calculated with the sequential monte carlo method. The method aims at considering the influence of strong correlation meteorological factors such as the irradiance and the temperature on the photovoltaic output power probability model, and the risk brought when the photovoltaic power station is connected into a power feeding net is thus analyzed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a grid-connected risk assessment method for a photovoltaic power station considering meteorological factors, and belongs to the technical field of power system risk assessment. Background technique [0002] The randomness, intermittence and volatility of photovoltaic power generation lead to more uncertainty when it is connected to the grid. The premise of risk assessment for a power grid containing photovoltaic power plants is to establish a probability model of the output power of photovoltaic power plants. The output power of photovoltaic power plants is significantly affected by two meteorological factors, irradiance and temperature. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the influence of meteorological factors such as irradiance and temperature when establishing a probability model of output power of photovoltaic power plants. [0003] Power system risk assessment is mainly to comprehensively measure the risk from two asp...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention aims at the technical problems existing in the prior art, and provides a risk assessment method for grid-connected photovoltaic power plants considering meteorological factors. Risk issues, propose a risk assessment method for grid-connected photovoltaic power plants considering meteorological factors, evaluate the risks brought about by grid-connected photovoltaic power plants, and guide the safe and stable operation of the power grid

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