A Frequency Comparison Scoring Method Based on Fault Tree Analysis
A frequency comparison and accident tree technology, applied in the field of accident tree analysis, it can solve the problems of incomplete quantitative probability of basic events, inability to accurately obtain the probability of occurrence of top events, etc., to achieve the effect of convenient formulation and control, and accurate data.
Active Publication Date: 2021-03-26
NANJING UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for obtaining the occurrence probability of basic events combined with the expert comparison scoring method and the database statistics method, so as to overcome the problem that the existing quantitative probability of basic events is incomplete and cannot accurately obtain the occurrence probability of top events
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Embodiment 1
[0049] Embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
[0050] combine Figure 2~3 , taking the basic event of a spraying explosion accident as an example to obtain the probability, the specific steps are as follows:
[0051] Step 1. Data statistics: Based on historical data, combine Visual Basic and Access to establish a basic event probability database, such as figure 2 shown;
[0052] Step 2. Establishing a fault tree: According to the basic event probability data, a fault tree is established.
[0053] When a spraying process fire and explosion accident occurs, the occurrence of the spraying process fire and explosion accident is determined as an incident on top;
[0054] determining an intermediate event based on the overhead event, the intermediate event including the presence of an ignition source and a concentration of combustible material reaching an explosive limit;
[0055] The basic event is d...
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The invention discloses an accident tree analysis method-based frequency comparison scoring method. The method comprises the steps of firstly based on historical data, combining Visual Basic with Access to establish a basic event occurrence probability database; secondly according to basic event occurrence probability data, establishing an accident tree; thirdly through the frequency comparison scoring method, determining a basic event occurrence probability of the accident tree; and finally by using an expert weight model, determining weights of different experts, and after expert judgment weight correction, working out an occurrence probability of a top event of the accident tree. According to the method, the basic event occurrence probability of the accident tree can be quantitatively and accurately evaluated; and quantitative guidance is provided for improving security decisions.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of fault tree analysis, in particular to a frequency comparison scoring method based on the fault tree analysis method. Background technique [0002] Accident Tree Analysis (ATA for short), also known as FaultTree Analysis (FTA for short), starts from the specific accident or fault (top event) to be analyzed, and analyzes its causes layer by layer until Find out the basic cause of the accident (basic event). The fault tree analysis method is a common graphic deductive method in the safety system engineering reliability, safety analysis and risk assessment. The fault tree analysis method analyzes similar accidents. Therefore, in the analysis and investigation stage, it is necessary to fully and comprehensively investigate all accidents that have occurred in similar systems, and investigate all causal events related to the top event, mainly including human errors, equipment defects, and material failures. Quality, ope...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F16/22G06F16/2458G06F16/21
CPCG06F16/219G06F16/2246G06F16/2462
Inventor 陈网桦王一丁
Owner NANJING UNIV OF SCI & TECH