River-lake water quality prediction and eutrophication risk assessment method based on Monte Carlo simulation

A water quality prediction and eutrophication technology, applied in the field of environmental engineering, can solve the problems of unconvincing accuracy and reliability, contingency and uncertainty of eutrophication evaluation, etc., to make up for inaccuracy and reduce contingency , the effect of improving the accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2018-10-02
BEIJING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

Both methods have certain advantages. However, most of the existing methods obtain the value change prediction (single value prediction) of water quality ind

Method used

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  • River-lake water quality prediction and eutrophication risk assessment method based on Monte Carlo simulation
  • River-lake water quality prediction and eutrophication risk assessment method based on Monte Carlo simulation
  • River-lake water quality prediction and eutrophication risk assessment method based on Monte Carlo simulation

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Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0082] Step 1: Establish a water quality dynamics model

[0083] Based on the evolution mechanism of water quality indicators, a water quality dynamics model is established, and the model equation is shown in formula (1).

[0084] Step 2: Construction of a river and lake water quality prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulation

[0085] Initial value of water quality index: x 0 =[6.5,0.05019,3,0.07,0.06,0.35,0.36,0.1] T ,

[0086] Process noise covariance matrix of water quality indicators: Σ x =diag{0.1,0.001,0.01,0.001,0.001,0.01,0.01,0.01},

[0087] Initial value of model parameters: θ 0 =[0.1,1.208,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.13,0.0009,0.001,0.025,0.075,0.9,0.35,1.02,1.3] T ,

[0088] Model parameter process noise covariance matrix:

[0089] Σ θ =diag{0.1,0.01,0.001,0.1,0.001,0.001,0.0001,0.0001,0.0001,0.01,0.001,0.01,0.1}.

[0090] Prediction step h=1 / 24 (unit: day), number of particles N=1000, and simulation time T=100 (unit: day).

[0091] Calculate the evolution ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a river-lake water quality prediction and eutrophication risk assessment method based on Monte Carlo simulation, and belongs to the field of environmental engineering technologies. The method comprises the steps of first establishing a water quality dynamic model of 8 water quality indexes based on a water quality index evolution mechanism; then performing river-lake waterquality prediction by using Monte Carlo simulation, predicting the evolution process of the water quality indexes by using Monte Carlo simulation based on the prior distribution of the known water quality indexes and model parameters of the water quality dynamic model, and obtaining the probability distribution of water quality index values in the future so as to realize water quality prediction;and finally constructing a comprehensive nutrition state index, and calculating the probability distribution of the comprehensive nutrition state index and the probability of being at different nutrition levels by combining the water quality prediction result so as to realize eutrophication risk assessment. The method disclosed by the invention can effectively realize water quality prediction andeutrophication analysis, is more comprehensive and accurate in consideration and overcomes the contingency brought about by a single-value prediction result.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention designs a river and lake water quality prediction method and eutrophication risk assessment method based on Monte Carlo simulation, and belongs to the technical field of environmental engineering. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of modern society, water eutrophication has become a major global water environment problem. Currently, there are more than 500 coastal areas affected by eutrophication worldwide. In addition, many of the world's freshwater lakes, streams and reservoirs suffer from eutrophication. Relevant studies have shown that 80% of lakes in my country are currently experiencing eutrophication. In my country, except for some sparsely populated freshwater lake areas and lakes that still maintain their original state, the concentration of nutrient salts in other lakes has exceeded the standard concentration of lake eutrophication. In particular, the concentration of nutrients in several large freshwat...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0635G06Q50/06Y02A20/152
Inventor 王小艺赵峙尧周宇琴王立许继平于家斌
Owner BEIJING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY
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