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Accurate prediction method for power grid infrastructure investment

A technology for infrastructure investment and forecasting methods, applied in instrument, finance, character and pattern recognition, etc., can solve the problem of inaccurate forecast of investment amount, and achieve the effect of high accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-11-16
UNIV OF ELECTRONICS SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide an accurate prediction method of grid infrastructure investment to solve the problem of inaccurate prediction of investment amount

Method used

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  • Accurate prediction method for power grid infrastructure investment
  • Accurate prediction method for power grid infrastructure investment
  • Accurate prediction method for power grid infrastructure investment

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Embodiment Construction

[0053] The principles and features of the present invention are described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, and the examples given are only used to explain the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.

[0054] Such as figure 1 As shown, an accurate prediction method for grid infrastructure investment includes the following steps:

[0055] S1. Screen out the model training features from the power grid operation data indicators through the gray slope correlation method;

[0056] S2. Carry out city clustering according to training features and generate clustering results;

[0057] S3. Select n similar cities of the city to be tested in the clustering results, set regression tree parameters, and construct a regression tree model with the operating data of the city to be tested and similar cities;

[0058] S4. Input the operating characteristics of the year before the year to be predicted into the regression tree mode...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an accurate prediction method for power grid infrastructure investment. The present invention provides a method for accurately predicting an urban power grid investment amountin the case of an insufficient data size in a specific city. The method predicts the investment amount by using a joint algorithm of a regression tree model, and accurately obtains a relationship between features and the investment amounts and reasonably augments the data size by using a classifier. Regardless of an error in a single year or an average error, the prediction error of an accurate prediction model is less than the prediction error of a prediction model obtained by random data augmentation, wherein the average error is reduced by 22.4% relative to the average error of the prediction model obtained by random augmentation. Thus, the prediction method of the present invention is high in accuracy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grid construction, in particular to a method for accurately predicting power grid infrastructure investment. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of the economy, the scale of the power grid continues to expand, the social power consumption continues to increase, and the investment in the power grid continues to increase. The rational allocation of power grid investment has also become an important issue. However, the current grid investment decision-making method is still at the traditional stage, lacking in scientificity and accuracy. In the current power grid investment decision-making, it is mainly to develop a general prediction model for all cities in the jurisdiction. The disadvantage of the general model is that when it is applied to a specific city prediction, the result may not be accurate. Due to the small amount of historical investment data accumulated in relate...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q40/06G06Q50/06G06K9/62
CPCG06Q40/06G06Q50/06G06F18/23
Inventor 凡时财朱晨邹见效徐红兵
Owner UNIV OF ELECTRONICS SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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