A statistical model-based northwest Pacific Ocean typhoon extension prediction method

Abstract

The invention relates to an extension period forecasting method for northwest Pacific Ocean typhoon based on a statistical model. The method comprises the following steps: step 1) calculating the number of typhoons in the ten-day period of a historical stage; 2) extracting a secondary season component in the historical re-analysis field to obtain a secondary season sea-air environment field corresponding to the ten-day typhoon date; Large-scale fields at different advance times relative to typhoon generation are calculated respectively; 3) establishing a statistical forecasting model: performing correlation analysis on the large-scale fields at different advance times and the number of typhoons in the ten days of the historical stage, and establishing a statistical forecasting equation forforecasting the number of typhoons in the ten days of the historical stage; And 4) substituting a forecasting factor solved by the observed real-time large-scale field into the statistical forecasting equation to obtain the average frequency generated by the typhoon in the ten-day period and the occurrence probability of different generation numbers to form a forecasting quantity. The method hasthe advantages that a statistical forecasting model of northwest Pacific Ocean Typhoon elongation forecasting is established, and the number of generated Typhoons on northwest Pacific Ocean and the probability of the number are forecasted 2-3 weeks ahead of time.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of atmospheric science and technology, in particular to an extended-period forecasting method for typhoons in the Northwest Pacific Ocean based on statistical models. Background technique [0002] Due to the abundant water vapor in the warm pool area of ​​the Northwest Pacific, the cyclonic circulation of the monsoon trough occupies the tropical Northwest Pacific in summer, making the Northwest Pacific the sea area with the most frequent typhoons in the world, accounting for about 30% of the total number of typhoons in the world. Typhoons in the Northwest Pacific are mostly generated near the tropical western central Pacific and the Philippine Sea. Under the influence of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure airflow, they gradually move west / northwest to the southeast coast of my country, Japan, South Korea and other places. Landing typhoons often cause serious natural disasters to the coastal areas of our country. Th...

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Problems solved by technology

Although previous studies have found the importance of intraseasonal oscillations on the occurrence and development of typhoon activities, the method of applying the correlation between the two to the extended period forecast of typhoon activities in the Northwest Pacific Ocean has not been established. The current literature only focuses on tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere. Statistical forecast of weekly changes (Leroy and Wheeler 2008) and dynamic model evaluation (Vitart et al. 2010), as well as some numerical model studies on typhoon cases, the results show that if the model can simulate the correct intraseasonal oscillation signal, It is possible to predict typhoon formation 2–4 weeks in advance (Fu and Hsu 2011; Wu and Duan 2015; Xiang et al.2015)

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