A conceptual hydrological model combined forecasting method suitable for a karst region

Abstract

The invention discloses a conceptual hydrological model combined forecasting method suitable for a karst region, and belongs to the field of hydrological forecasting. A karst hydrological model is constructed by using a karst water tank technology; the karst hydrological model is fused with a traditional conceptual hydrological model of a full productive flow mechanism; The method comprises the steps of obtaining a conceptual hydrological combination forecasting model suitable for a karst region, calibrating model parameters by adopting a multi-objective optimization algorithm, driving the model by using basin rainfall evaporation data to obtain runoff forecasting of a basin, and comparing a forecasting result with an actually measured runoff process and a forecasting result of a traditional model. According to the method, a combined forecasting concept and a multi-target parameter calibration method are introduced, the defect of forecasting of a pure concept hydrological model and a pure karst water tank model in a karst region is overcome, and the confluence generation and generation characteristics of the karst region are better reflected. The method provided by the invention provides a new method and idea for hydrological forecasting of the karst region.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of hydrological forecasting, and in particular relates to a conceptual hydrological model combination forecasting method suitable for karst areas. Background technique [0002] The development of multi-fissure joints, sinkholes, stone forests, peak clusters, and underground rivers in karst areas leads to strong heterogeneity of the aqueous medium, and its runoff-confluence mechanism is different from other basins. [0003] Existing studies are mainly pure traditional conceptual hydrological models or pure karst hydrological models. The main problem of the former is that it cannot reflect the hydrological laws of karst areas well; Area exists at the same time, so that the latter cannot well describe the characteristics of regional flow generation and confluence. [0004] Therefore, Cheng Genwei [Xin'anjiang Karst Hydrological Model. Hydropower Energy Science, 1991, 92(2): 139-144.] proposed a Xin'anjiang kar...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Existing studies are mainly pure traditional conceptual hydrological models or pure karst hydrological models. The main problem of the former is that it cannot reflect the hydrological laws of karst areas well; The area exists at the same time, making the latter unable to describe the characteristics of regional flow generation and confluence very well.

[0004] Therefore, Cheng Genwei [Xin'anjiang Karst Hydrological Model. Hydropower Energy Science, 1991, 92(2): 139-144.] proposed a Xin'anjiang karst method, but this method did not clearly propose a combined forecast method, nor did it use multiple parameter calibration

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