Photovoltaic output power prediction method and system and storage medium

Abstract

The invention provides a photovoltaic output power prediction method and system and a storage medium. The method comprises the steps of obtaining photovoltaic output data and meteorological data in apreset historical time period; decomposing the photovoltaic output power sequence by adopting a wavelet packet decomposition algorithm to obtain 2n decomposition sequences, and respectively carryingout single-branch reconstruction on the 2n decomposition sequences to obtain 2n reconstruction sequences; combining the 2n reconstruction sequences with the corresponding meteorological data to obtain2n data sets; respectively inputting the 2n data sets into corresponding pre-trained long-short-term memory neural network units to obtain prediction results of the 2n long-short-term memory neural network units on photovoltaic output power in a preset future time period; and performing weighted summation on the prediction results output by the 2n long-short-term memory neural network units to obtain a comprehensive prediction result of the photovoltaic output power in the preset future time period. The prediction precision can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grids, in particular to a photovoltaic output power prediction method, system and storage medium. Background technique [0002] Photovoltaic power is a renewable, clean and flexible distributed energy source, and it is considered as one of the key solutions to meet the world's growing demand for clean energy, bringing huge economic and environmental benefits. However, due to its uncertain and intermittent characteristics, the high penetration of photovoltaic power generation also brings many new challenges to power system operation and planning. These challenges include sensitivity to meteorological conditions, random fluctuations, and intermittency in power generation. Relevant studies have shown that when the grid-connected photovoltaic capacity accounts for more than 15% of the power system, its fluctuation may cause power system failures. Photovoltaic power generation forecasting is an effecti...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to the use of weather forecast data in the existing technology, weather forecast errors will be introduced, which reduces the prediction accuracy

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