Looking for breakthrough ideas for innovation challenges? Try Patsnap Eureka!

A Bayesian network-based dynamic risk analysis method for a high-speed rail contact network

A technology of dynamic risk and analysis methods, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as hidden safety hazards, less attention to real-time impact, and lack of relevant assessment of passenger flow safety risks.

Active Publication Date: 2019-06-28
TSINGHUA UNIV
View PDF5 Cites 10 Cited by
  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] It can be seen from the above that although many scholars have conducted research on the operation safety of the catenary system, the research content has paid less attention to the real-time impact of real-time changes in the external environment on the system operation and the risk chain propagation process based on the fault mechanism.
In addition, due to the failure of the catenary of the high-speed rail, it may lead to the congestion of passengers at the station and the line, which brings great safety hazards. However, the current research only considers the possible consequences of the failure in the power supply system, and the risk of flashover There is also a lack of relevant assessment of the passenger flow safety risks brought about by the chain transmission of

Method used

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
View more

Image

Smart Image Click on the blue labels to locate them in the text.
Viewing Examples
Smart Image
  • A Bayesian network-based dynamic risk analysis method for a high-speed rail contact network
  • A Bayesian network-based dynamic risk analysis method for a high-speed rail contact network
  • A Bayesian network-based dynamic risk analysis method for a high-speed rail contact network

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0054] Embodiment 1 of the present invention provides a kind of high-speed railway catenary dynamic risk analysis method based on Bayesian network, such as figure 2 As shown, the method includes the following steps:

[0055] S1: Establish the risk propagation chain model of high-speed railway catenary insulator flashover, obtain the dynamic probability corresponding to each characteristic quantity in the risk propagation chain model, and substitute each dynamic probability into the Bayesian network to obtain the risk occurrence probability;

[0056] In step S1, specifically taking the event that the high-speed rail cannot operate normally due to pollution flashover of insulators as an example, establish the following image 3 The risk transmission chain shown, the mechanism is:

[0057] As the running time continues to increase, more and more dirt is accumulated on the surface of the insulator that is always exposed to the surrounding air, such as dust from wind and sand wea...

Embodiment 2

[0150] Taking the Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed railway as an example to analyze the calculation example, the operating lines of the Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed railway are as follows: Figure 9 shown.

[0151] The Chengdu-Chongqing area has a subtropical monsoon climate. The notable features of this area are cloudy and foggy, short sunshine hours, and a high probability of train catenary flashovers. Based on the actual situation in the Chengdu-Chongqing area, it is assumed that a train at the Longchang North-Rongchang North Station is running under two different initial environmental conditions as shown in Table 7.

[0152] Table 7 Values ​​of initial conditions for Bayesian simulation

[0153] Initial conditions

initial condition 1

initial condition 2

Initial distribution of pollution status (salt density value)

ρ ESDD ~N(0.07,0.1)

ρ ESDD ~N(0.25,0.15)

Leakage current maximum monitoring size

124mA

350mA

Contact wire ...

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

PUM

No PUM Login to View More

Abstract

The invention provides a Bayesian network-based dynamic risk analysis method for a high-speed rail contact network, which comprises the following steps of: establishing a risk propagation chain modelof high-speed rail contact network insulator flashover, carrying out characteristic quantity-dynamic probability dynamic mathematical modeling on the risk chain model, and putting the risk chain modelin a Bayesian network for calculation to obtain a risk occurrence probability; Using the passenger flow intensity index to determine the severity of risk dynamics in both time and space dimensions, taking basic time granularity and stations as basic units for obtaining real-time monitoring data, taking a risk propagation path and a propagation process as a passenger flow density index calculationprinciple, and calculating the severity degree of risk consequences caused by delay of different times of a train; And combining the dynamic probability with the severity, and obtaining the dynamic risk level of the risk chain according to the risk assessment matrix.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of risk analysis of high-speed rail power supply systems, and in particular relates to a dynamic risk analysis method for high-speed rail catenary based on a Bayesian network. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the development and popularization of high-speed railway in my country, its safety issues have also attracted people's attention. According to the results of the Ministry of Railways’ investigation and statistics on 20,000 kilometers of electrified railway operation accidents across the country, by the end of 2016, accidents in my country where train operations were interrupted due to power supply system failures accounted for more than half of all accidents. In the high-speed rail power supply system, the catenary is a special transmission line erected above the high-speed electrified railway, which is responsible for supplying power to electric locomotives. The catenary is erected ...

Claims

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

Application Information

Patent Timeline
no application Login to View More
Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
Inventor 张国华马梦白董炜孙新亚吉吟东
Owner TSINGHUA UNIV
Who we serve
  • R&D Engineer
  • R&D Manager
  • IP Professional
Why Patsnap Eureka
  • Industry Leading Data Capabilities
  • Powerful AI technology
  • Patent DNA Extraction
Social media
Patsnap Eureka Blog
Learn More
PatSnap group products

Browse by: Latest US Patents, China's latest patents, Technical Efficacy Thesaurus, Application Domain, Technology Topic, Popular Technical Reports.

© 2024 PatSnap. All rights reserved.Legal|Privacy policy|Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement|Sitemap|About US| Contact US: help@patsnap.com