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Wind farm power uncertainty prediction method

A forecasting method and technology for wind farms, applied in wind power generation, electrical components, circuit devices, etc., can solve the problems of large wind speed-power forecast error and uncertainty of wind farm power, and achieve the effect of improving forecast accuracy

Pending Publication Date: 2019-07-05
QINGHAI ELECTRIC POWER DESIGN INST
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  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] Aiming at the deficiencies of the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a wind farm power uncertainty prediction method based on the P-Q segmented hybrid cloud model, which is used to solve the relatively large wind speed-power prediction error caused by the operation dispersion of the current large wind farms. Big problem, to ensure the economical and safe operation of the new energy grid

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Embodiment 1

[0066] figure 1 It is a flow chart of the wind farm power uncertain prediction method based on the P-Q segmented hybrid cloud model of the present invention, as figure 1 As shown, the prediction method of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0067] S1: Divide the wind speed from the cut-in wind speed to the cut-out wind speed into s wind speed intervals according to the prediction accuracy requirements;

[0068] S2: Statistical wind farm in any wind speed range [v i ,v i+1 ] under the probability density function of the output power As the probability density function f(v i-min );

[0069] S3: For any probability density function curve, use P-Q segmentation method and normal transformation method to divide it into n p a normal distribution curve;

[0070] S4: Use the cloud model to fit any segmented normal distribution curve, and use the Bayesian estimation method to estimate the parameter values ​​of the segmented cloud model, and establish a wind fa...

Embodiment 2

[0126] This embodiment provides a specific implementation of the prediction method of the present invention.

[0127] Figure 4 It is a schematic diagram of the distribution of wind turbines in the wind farm provided by the present invention. There are 33 SL3000 wind turbines in the wind farm, with a rated power of 3MW, a cut-in wind speed of 3m / s, a rated wind speed of 12m / s, and a cut-out wind speed of 25m / s. Select the measured data on a time scale of 5 minutes between 8:00 on February 20, 2016 and 18:00 on March 20, 2016 for illustration.

[0128] Taking this as an example, a wind farm power uncertainty prediction method based on the P-Q segmented hybrid cloud model provided by the present invention includes:

[0129] S1: Divide the wind speed from the cut-in wind speed to the cut-out wind speed into s typical wind speed values ​​according to the prediction accuracy requirements;

[0130] (1) Calculate the value of the number s of wind farm intervals

[0131] Firstly, ...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of operation control of a new energy power system, and particularly relates to a wind farm power uncertainty prediction method, which comprises the following steps of: dividing the wind speed into s wind speed sections from the cut-in wind speed to the cut-out wind speed according to a prediction accuracy requirement; calculating the probability density functionof the output power of the wind farm in any wind speed section; dividing arbitrary probability density function curve into np normal distribution curves by a P-Q segmentation method and a normal transformation method; fitting the normal distribution curve of arbitrary wind speed section by a cloud model, estimating a segmented cloud model parameter value by a Bayesian estimation method, and establishing a wind farm power uncertainty mapping model under arbitrary wind speed section; and predicting the wind farm power based on the state transfer function of a Markov model. By introducing the cloud model, the method can fully consider the uncertainty between the wind speed of the wind farm and the power, and significantly improve the power prediction accuracy of the wind farm.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of operation control of new energy electric power systems, and in particular relates to an uncertain prediction method of wind farm power. Background technique [0002] Wind farm power forecasting is one of the effective means to alleviate the adverse effects of large-scale wind power grid integration on the power system. Due to the influence of wind energy fluctuation and forecast error, the power forecast of a single estimated value introduces greater risks to the grid dispatching plan or wind farm operation decision-making. Wind farm power forecasting technology is one of the effective ways to reduce the adverse impact of wind farm grid-connected on the cable system and increase the proportion of wind power grid-connected. It provides technical support for the safe, stable and economical operation of power systems and wind farms. A single prediction result is difficult to meet the requirements of power grid and wi...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/38
CPCH02J3/386H02J2203/20Y02A30/00Y02E10/76
Inventor 朱子琪张文松祁秋民张玮王瑜李美玲王正辉王伯军胡刚韩明亮
Owner QINGHAI ELECTRIC POWER DESIGN INST
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