A Lightning Nowcasting Method Based on Radar and Sounding Data

Abstract

The invention discloses a lightning nowcasting method based on radar and sounding data, which is characterized in that four characteristic temperature layers with specific atmospheric temperatures are defined according to the acquired radar base data and sounding data, and the The latest height data and the latest temperature data of the two pressure layers with data are used to perform linear interpolation on the latest sounding data of each characteristic temperature layer to obtain the height of each characteristic temperature layer, and then predict according to the preset forecast time limit based on the radar base data. The extrapolation forecast data is obtained at the set sampling time interval, and finally the probability of occurrence and risk level of lightning are obtained by using the extrapolation data corresponding to each characteristic temperature layer in the extrapolation forecast data to complete the lightning nowcasting; the advantage is that the prediction accuracy is high and can be compared Good prediction of short approaching lightning probability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a lightning forecasting method, in particular to a lightning nowcasting method based on radar and sounding data. Background technique [0002] Lightning disaster is one of the serious natural disasters affecting human activities announced by the "United Nations International Decade for Disaster Reduction". It is called a major public hazard in the electronic age by the "National Defense Electrotechnical Commission". Today, with the widespread use of electronic equipment, people and property losses caused by lightning itself have attracted more and more attention. [0003] According to the classic theory of lightning, generally the temperature of the cloud top of the convective cloud must be at least lower than -20°C for more active lightning to occur. The number and frequency of lightning vary greatly depending on the strength of convection. Generally speaking, the stronger the convection, the higher the number and frequency o...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] In recent years, with the continuous development of meteorological detection technology, the continuous enrichment of meteorological data and the continuous improvement of forecasting technology, more and more attention has been paid to the research on lightning disaster monitoring and early warning. At present, most of the mainstream lightning monitoring and early warning technologies are based on atmospheric Electric field, lightning location and radar data, there have been many theoretical studies in this area, but there are still great difficulties and deficiencies in practical application

First of all, in terms of detection network construction, due to the limitations of economic investment and other factors, the deployment density of detection instruments often cannot meet the requirements; second, due to differences in geographical and meteorological conditions, the determination of early warning thresholds often has strong regional characteristics. The research results cannot solve the local practical problems well; thirdly, in terms of research methods, there are still some empty and missed reports in the previous methods, and the accuracy of early warning needs to be further improved