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A Calculation Method of Nuclear Power Unit Failure Probability Based on Interval Probability Network Source Correlation

A technology for nuclear power units and failure probability, applied in computing, AC network circuits, resources, etc., can solve the problems of difficulty in obtaining, unable to reasonably characterize the characteristics of nuclear power units, and the number of fault samples of nuclear power units is scarce, so as to make up for limitations and deficiencies. Effect

Active Publication Date: 2020-11-20
ELECTRIC POWER RES INST OF GUANGXI POWER GRID CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] In order to solve the problems in the field of power equipment reliability evaluation that the traditional failure probability model of generating units cannot reasonably characterize the characteristics of nuclear power units, and the number of fault samples of nuclear power units is rare and difficult to obtain, the present invention provides a network source based on interval probability The Calculation Method of Related Nuclear Power Unit Failure Probability

Method used

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  • A Calculation Method of Nuclear Power Unit Failure Probability Based on Interval Probability Network Source Correlation
  • A Calculation Method of Nuclear Power Unit Failure Probability Based on Interval Probability Network Source Correlation
  • A Calculation Method of Nuclear Power Unit Failure Probability Based on Interval Probability Network Source Correlation

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Embodiment Construction

[0052] In order to better understand the present invention, the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and specific embodiment:

[0053] The expression of interval probability is:

[0054] In the formula: P im (A) represents the interval probability of event A occurring; P (A) is the lower bound of the interval probability; is the upper bound of the interval probability, P (A) with satisfy constraint.

[0055] The inexact Dirichlet model (IDM) is an extension of the deterministic Dirichlet model, which uses a series of Dirichlet prior distributions, and the corresponding prior probability density function set is:

[0056]

[0057]

[0058] Where: θ=(θ 1 ,θ 2 ,…,θ N ) represents the vector composed of the probabilities of each state of the random variable, satisfying θ n ≥0,n=1,2,…,N and constraints; r n ,n=1,2,...,N represents the prior weight factor of each state of the random variable, which represen...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of reliability evaluation of electric power equipment, and in particular relates to a calculation method of nuclear power unit failure probability based on interval probability network source correlation. The present invention expresses the failure probability of nuclear power units in the form of interval probability, fully copes with the constraints of lack of failure samples of nuclear power units and is difficult to obtain, makes up for the limitations and shortcomings of using accurate probability in the case of small samples, and more reasonably The probability interval of nuclear power unit failure is given. Compared with the independent failure probability model of the traditional thermal power unit, the present invention not only considers the failure probability caused by the aging of the nuclear power unit itself, but also takes into account the characteristics related to the network source, that is, the influence of the change of the operating parameter of the power grid on the failure probability of the nuclear power unit. The required failure probability parameter has higher reliability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of reliability evaluation of electric power equipment, and in particular relates to a calculation method of failure probability of a nuclear power unit based on interval probability network source correlation. Background technique [0002] With the construction of UHV, AC / DC hybrid, the access of renewable energy and the construction of the global energy Internet, the problem of safe and stable operation of the power system has become increasingly prominent, and it is very urgent to conduct a fast and accurate reliability and risk assessment of the power system . The failure or outage of power equipment is the root cause of the failure of the power system. The safe operation of power equipment is the basis for the safe operation of the system. The probability of equipment failure depends on factors such as its own health status, external environmental conditions, and system operating status. The failure probability m...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00G06Q10/06
CPCH02J3/00G06Q10/0635H02J2203/20
Inventor 黄东山王斌林翔宇王晓明李明珀彭博雅
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RES INST OF GUANGXI POWER GRID CO LTD
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