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Prediction method and system for emergency shelter refuge population requirements

A technology for shelter and population, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, special data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as inaccurate planning of fixed shelters, inconsistency between predicted scale and actual, waste of public resources, etc., to improve urban security. The effect of disaster prevention

Active Publication Date: 2019-09-06
TONGJI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0017] In view of the above problems, the purpose of the present invention is to solve the problem that in the practice of planning and construction of shelters, the scale of demand forecast does not match the actual situation, the problem of inability to accurately plan and fix shelters, and waste of public resources

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  • Prediction method and system for emergency shelter refuge population requirements
  • Prediction method and system for emergency shelter refuge population requirements
  • Prediction method and system for emergency shelter refuge population requirements

Examples

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Embodiment 1

[0108] For example, a fixed evacuation demand forecast is made for a city in Jiangsu Province, my country, which is fortified at 6 degrees. The existing building structures are mainly Class B, and three earthquake damage scenarios of 6 degrees, 7 degrees and 8 degrees are considered respectively.

[0109] Specifically, based on the analysis of the deformation evaluation method of socket-type pipe joints in the "Code for Seismic Design of Outdoor Water Supply and Drainage and Gas Thermal Engineering (GB 50032-2003)", it is obtained that all pipes in the water supply pipe network system in this area are affected by small earthquakes. All of them are basically in good condition. Under the moderate earthquake, 98.79% of the pipelines are basically in good condition, and 1.21% of the pipelines are in a slightly damaged state. Under the earthquake, 97.10% of the pipelines were basically in good condition, and 2.90% of the pipelines were in a slightly damaged state. Considering the ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a prediction method and system for emergency shelter refuge population requirements. The prediction method comprises the steps: employing an earthquake vulnerability analysis algorithm, and determining the scale Bi of affected population caused by a building structure of a to-be-predicted region having a moderate or above damage degree; evaluating the anti-seismic propertyof the infrastructure system in the to-be-predicted area, and determining the scale Wj of affected population caused by interruption of the infrastructure system; obtaining a time node t0 in a planning period related to the to-be-predicted area; according to the Bi, Wj and t0, substituting the Bi, Wj and t0 into an emergency refuge population quantity prediction model constructed according to a TCBID theory; and outputting the predicted number M of refuge population requirements of the emergency refuge. According to the prediction method, the fixed refuge requirement is dynamically evaluated,so that the requirement and supply are more matched, and the urban refuge population demand is scientifically and reasonably predicted, and the urban safety disaster prevention efficiency is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the fields of urban planning and urban disaster prevention and mitigation planning, in particular to a method and system for predicting refugee population demand in emergency shelters. Background technique [0002] Emergency shelter planning is the basic content and important means of implementing spatial planning countermeasures and important disaster prevention facilities in urban planning and various disaster prevention plans. Refuge demand is the basis and premise of emergency shelter planning. On the basis of a clear and accurate assessment of the space-time distribution and scale of the refugee population, the planning and layout of refuge sites, division of responsibility areas, site classification, and facility allocation can be reasonably carried out. Underestimating the refuge population will lead to insufficient planned number and capacity of emergency shelters, and it will be difficult to meet the city’s refuge nee...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/26G06F17/50
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0639G06Q50/265G06F30/23
Inventor 赫磊胡群芳王飞解子昂高晓昱
Owner TONGJI UNIV
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