An Interactive Expressway Traffic Accident Prediction Method

A technology for highways and traffic accidents, applied in the field of traffic safety, can solve the problem of no prior traffic accident prediction, and achieve the effect of reducing economic costs and operation and management costs, improving safety levels, and reducing accident costs.

Active Publication Date: 2020-08-25
HARBIN INST OF TECH
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] At present, most expressway traffic safety management belongs to post-event processing. Post-event processing is mainly to analyze the cause after the accident, find the black spots of the accident, and does not carry out pre-event traffic accident prediction.

Method used

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  • An Interactive Expressway Traffic Accident Prediction Method
  • An Interactive Expressway Traffic Accident Prediction Method
  • An Interactive Expressway Traffic Accident Prediction Method

Examples

Experimental program
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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0025] Specific implementation mode one: as figure 1 As shown, a kind of interactive expressway traffic accident prediction method described in this embodiment, the method comprises the following steps:

[0026] Step 1. Determine the basic parameters required for expressway traffic accident prediction;

[0027] Step 2, extracting design geometric data, traffic facility data and other traffic data required for expressway traffic accident prediction;

[0028] Step 3. According to the basic parameters determined in step 1 and the data determined in step 2, divide the entire expressway into several sections, each section has a single characteristic;

[0029] Step 4, determine the accident prediction model (denoted as spf) under the reference conditions of each section;

[0030] Step 5. Select the correction coefficient of the prediction model, and use the correction coefficient to determine the corrected accident prediction models for different types of accidents and accident se...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0042] Specific embodiment 2: The difference between this embodiment and specific embodiment 1 is that the basic parameters required for the expressway traffic accident prediction include: determining the interval range, area type and prediction time of traffic accident prediction;

[0043] According to the purpose of the research, the interval range, area type and prediction time of expressway traffic accident prediction can be determined;

[0044] If the function of the interval for traffic accident prediction is to connect cities, then the area type of the interval for traffic accident prediction is city; if the function of the interval for traffic accident prediction is to connect the suburbs of cities, then the area for traffic accident prediction is The area type of the range is suburban. If the function of the interval range for traffic accident prediction is to connect villages and towns, the area type of the interval range for traffic accident prediction is rural.

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0045] Specific implementation mode three: as figure 2 As shown, the difference between this embodiment and the second specific embodiment is that: the design geometric data in the second step includes horizontal curve data, vertical curve data and cross-sectional data;

[0046] The cross-sectional data includes lane, median, shoulder and ramp connection data;

[0047] Lane data includes starting and ending stakes, lane width and lane type; median data includes starting and ending stakes and median width of the median; shoulder data includes shoulder starting and ending stakes, shoulder starting and ending slopes, and shoulder starting and ending widths; Ramp connection data includes ramp type, diversion / merge point stake number, divergence / merge point and transition point distance;

[0048] The lane types include driving lanes, overtaking lanes, climbing lanes and speed change lanes.

[0049] The described ramp types include on-ramps and off-ramps.

[0050] The horizontal c...

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Abstract

The invention provides an interactive highway traffic accident prediction method which belongs to the technical field of traffic safety. According to the invention, the problem that beforehand traffic accident prediction is not carried out in the design and construction stage of an expressway at the present is solved. The realization process of the invention comprises the steps that 1 basic parameters required for traffic accident prediction are determined, and relevant data are extracted; 2 the expressway is divided into multiple sections with a single characteristic; 3 a baseline accident prediction model is determined for each section; 4 different types of accident prediction models are determined; 5 a comprehensive traffic accident prediction model is determined, and the total number of accidents in each section is predicted; 6 the accident rate of million-car kilometers in each section is calculated, and the acceptable critical accident rate value Q is determined; 7 design data adjustment is carried out on a section higher than Q; 8 the section after design data adjustment is predicted again, and the interactive feedback result is given; and 9 the processes 7 and 8 are repeated until the accident rate of each section is lower than Q. The method provided by the invention can be applied to the technical field of traffic safety.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of traffic safety, and in particular relates to a traffic accident prediction method, which can predict traffic accidents on highways in the design and construction stages, and adjust design data according to the prediction results. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country's highway construction has developed rapidly. As the "artery" and "booster" of the national economy, the highway has played an extremely important role in the development of my country's economy. At the same time, the traffic safety problem of expressways is also prominent. According to statistics, the traffic accident rate of expressways in our country is about 300% of that of ordinary highways, which is the hardest hit area of ​​traffic accidents. How to predict traffic accidents on expressways during the design and construction stages, and discover the locations where there may be potential traffic safety hazards is ver...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06F17/18
CPCG06F17/18G06Q10/04G06Q50/265G08G1/0129
Inventor 马艳丽朱洁玉田佳佳李博
Owner HARBIN INST OF TECH
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