Photovoltaic power station short-term power prediction method

A technology for photovoltaic power station and power prediction, applied in prediction, instrument, character and pattern recognition, etc., can solve the problems of abnormal points, outlier sensitivity, model over-fitting, reducing prediction accuracy, etc., to reduce the data range, prevent Overfitting and underfitting, the effect of improving accuracy
CN110705789AInactive Publication Date: 2020-01-17ECONOMIC TECH RES INST STATE GRID QIANGHAI ELECTRIC POWER +2
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
ECONOMIC TECH RES INST STATE GRID QIANGHAI ELECTRIC POWER
Publication Date
2020-01-17
Estimated Expiration
Not applicable · inactive patent

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Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power station short-term power prediction method, and the method comprises the steps: selecting meteorological factors such as season types, weather types and irradiation intensity / temperature as an input data set according to the historical output power data and numerical weather prediction data of a photovoltaic power station; preprocessing the input data set, extracting a day type feature vector, and clustering the day type feature vector by adopting a K-Means clustering method to obtain K different day type results; according to the numerical weatherprediction data of the prediction day, determining a day type to which the prediction day belongs, obtaining a data sample set of the most similar day of n days in the day type to which the predictionday belongs based on a similar day theory, taking the data sample set as prediction model training data, performing training modeling on the training data set by adopting a random forest regression prediction algorithm, and establishing a photovoltaic power station short-term power prediction model; and calling a photovoltaic power station short-term power prediction model based on the predictionday numerical weather prediction data, and obtaining a short-term power prediction result of the photovoltaic power station in the prediction day.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation prediction, in particular to a method for short-term power prediction of a photovoltaic power station. Background technique

[0002] With the rapid consumption of traditional energy and the enhancement of environmental awareness, clean, environmentally friendly and sustainable renewable energy has gained widespread attention. Photovoltaic power generation, as a relatively mature renewable energy power generation method, has been well developed and utilized. With the rapid development of renewable energy power generation technology, large-scale photovoltaic power plants will be connected to the grid. Due to the randomness and volatility of photovoltaic power generation output, the grid connection of large-scale photovoltaic power plants will affect the stability of the power grid. In order to achieve the balance of grid power, photovoltaic power generation enterprises need t...

Claims

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