A Sub-item Load Forecasting Method for Fine-grained Electricity Consumption Behavior of Residential Users

A load forecasting and fine-grained technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as inability to accurately predict sub-item loads

Active Publication Date: 2022-06-21
JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] In order to solve the technical problem that the prior art cannot accurately predict the sub-item load, the present invention provides a sub-item load forecasting method for the fine-grained electricity consumption behavior of residential users, which can scientifically predict the fine-grained sub-item load data of urban residential quarters

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  • A Sub-item Load Forecasting Method for Fine-grained Electricity Consumption Behavior of Residential Users
  • A Sub-item Load Forecasting Method for Fine-grained Electricity Consumption Behavior of Residential Users
  • A Sub-item Load Forecasting Method for Fine-grained Electricity Consumption Behavior of Residential Users

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[0061] The present invention is described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.

[0062] figure 1 It is a specific flow chart of the sub-item load prediction method for fine-grained electricity consumption behavior of resident users of the present invention. The method for sub-item load prediction of fine-grained electricity consumption behavior of residential users includes steps.

[0063] Step 1: Obtain fine-grained historical sample data of resident users, and preprocess the historical sample data;

[0064] The historical sample data refers to the fine-grained electrical load data of residential users for one year and the maximum temperature and minimum temperature of the corresponding day. The preprocessing of historical sample data refers to cleaning data, which is to supplement the missing period of the day, and delete the abnormal date, electricity and other data.

[0065] Fine-grained means that each day is divided into multiple t...

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Abstract

A sub-item load forecasting method for fine-grained electricity consumption behavior of residential users, which obtains historical sample data of sub-item power consumption of residential users; constructs a training sample set and a forecast sample set for the prediction model; The date, whether it is a holiday or working day, each temperature, peak and valley, and the corresponding sub-item power are used as the input of the AdaBoost iterative algorithm to train the model; the date corresponding to each sub-item power in the forecast sample, the holiday working day, temperature, peak The valley is used as the input of the AdaBoost iterative algorithm to obtain the corresponding output results; the output results are processed by adding influencing factors to obtain the sub-item load data of the residential users on a certain day in the future. The invention can scientifically predict the fine-grained sub-item load data of urban residents, and solve the technical problems that it is difficult to establish an accurate model to predict it due to the small sub-item power load data of residential areas and the complexity and variability of influencing factors. .

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system load prediction, and relates to a sub-item load prediction method for fine-grained electricity consumption behavior of residential users, in particular to a sub-item load prediction method for residents based on influencing factors. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of the global economy, the power industry, which has shifted from a monopoly business model to a competitive relationship, especially the development of smart grids, has put forward higher requirements for all sectors of the power system. Only by conducting comprehensive and detailed research on the data related to load forecasting, formulating efficient and economical power generation plans, and rationally arranging unit output can the power sector continue to provide users with safe and reliable power, meet the needs of each user, and ensure the safety and stability of the power system. operation, and can ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 徐涛顾水福李敏蕾傅萌冯燕钧洪佳燕
Owner JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO
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