Space object long-term collision risk analysis method based on space density model

Abstract

The invention provides a space object long-term collision risk analysis method based on a space density model. The method comprises the following specific steps: determining a long-term distribution range of a near space object, and building the space density model of the near space object based on the long-term distribution range of the near space object; obtaining forecast data of a protected satellite orbit; calculating the probability that the space object passes through the spherical shell of the position where the protected satellite is located by utilizing the forecast data of the protected satellite orbit and the space density model of the near space object, and establishing a set of cumulative long-term collision probability time-varying graphs, each varying graph corresponding toa group of deorbit initial values; and calculate the collision probability at any time in the future, and summing to obtain the whole collision risk varying along with the time on the basis of the time-varying graph set of the collision probability by performing random selection and time changing operations. According to the invention, the safety of satellite operation can be ensured.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a long-term collision risk analysis method for space objects based on a space density model, and belongs to the technical field of satellite operation safety assessment. Background technique [0002] At present, the satellites and space debris that have been deployed by countries in the world are mainly concentrated in low-earth orbits below 2000km, medium-high orbits around 20,000km, and geosynchronous orbits. In the future, more satellites will be deployed to operate in these orbital areas. After that, there will be more space objects or space debris running in this area, which will inevitably cause greater collision risks to the operational safety of spacecraft in these areas. The design life of a satellite is generally several years or even more than ten years. During the long-term operation, ensuring the safety of the satellite operation is an extremely important task; when the satellite is orbiting or deorbiting at the en...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] (2) For decades or even hundreds of years after the satellite is de-orbited, it is necessary to analyze and compare the long-term collision probability of the de-orbited satellite with other objects in the adjacent space, and then determine reasonable de-orbiting parameters to ensure that the adjacent The operation of satellites in orbit is safe; however, in the current research on the collision probability, people have not carried out space objects to protect satellites during their in-orbit operation (several years or more than ten years) or even hundreds of years after de-orbiting. Collision Risk Analysis of Long-Term Collision Probability

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