Hand-foot-and-mouth disease epidemic situation prediction method based on case, weather and aetiology monitoring data

Abstract

The invention discloses a hand-foot-and-mouth disease epidemic situation prediction method based on case, weather and aetiology monitoring data. The prediction method includes: analyzing the relationship of the hand-foot-and-mouth disease cases with weather and aetiology factors and the hysteresis effect, and screening the indexes included in a model; on the basis of multi-source data of the hand-foot-and-mouth disease case, weather and aetiology, constructing a hand-foot-and-mouth disease model through a time series generalized additive model; dividing the multi-source data into a training data set and a verifying data set, thus evaluating the fitting situation and prediction result of the hand-foot-and-mouth disease epidemic situation prediction model. By combining the case, weather, aetiology and population data, a prediction model is constructed by using the time series generalized additive model. The data then is separated into different data sets to train and verify the fitting situation and prediction result of the model. Therefore, foresight prediction and risk warning on the trend of the hand-foot-and-mouth disease are conducted in real time. The method is more reliable inprediction result and is higher in timeliness and practicability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of prediction and early warning methods for hand, foot and mouth disease epidemic situation, in particular to a hand, foot and mouth disease epidemic situation prediction method based on case, weather and pathogen monitoring data. Background technique [0002] Hand, foot, mouth disease (HFMD for short) is a common infectious disease mainly caused by a variety of enteroviruses, mostly in preschool children, and infants under three years old are generally susceptible; Type 71 (EV71) can cause severe illness and death, and Coxsackie type A group 16 (CA16), echovirus, etc. can cause hand, foot and mouth disease. [0003] In 2016, China's leading HFMD EV71 vaccine was launched on the market. Although the vaccine has a good protective effect against EV71 infection-related HFMD, it has not been found to have protective effects against other enterovirus-infected HFMD. [0004] According to reports, although the number of HFM...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In 2016, China's leading research and development of EV71 vaccine for hand, foot and mouth disease was launched on the market. Although the vaccine has a good protective effect on EV71 infection-related hand, foot and mouth disease, it has not been found to have a protective effect on other enterovirus infections.

[0006] How to carry out the prediction and early warning of the epidemic trend of HFMD is an important means for the prevention and control of HFMD. At present, some scholars use the control chart method or ARIMA to predict the epidemic trend of HFMD based on disease surveillance data. This type of research is mostly based on simple case monitoring data to model, and the prevalence of HFMD is affected by many factors, such as meteorological factors, the type of epidemic virus in the year, etc.; There are few reports on methods for predicting the epidemic trend of hand, foot and mouth disease

[0007] Therefore, the existing technology still needs to be improved and developed

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