A Method for Estimating the Error Distribution of Wind Power Frequency Regulation Potential Prediction
A technology of prediction error and distribution estimation, which is applied in the direction of power generation prediction, wind power generation, electrical components, etc. in the AC network, and can solve problems such as the distribution of prediction error and the lack of research on the frequency regulation potential of wind power systems that do not involve wind power in frequency regulation potential. Achieve the effects of alleviating the frequency regulation pressure of the power grid, reducing operational risks, and improving the stable operation of the power system
Active Publication Date: 2021-11-16
NANJING DONGBO SMART ENERGY RES INST CO LTD
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[0003] Existing research mainly focuses on the formulation of active power control strategies for wind power participating in frequency regulation and the research on primary frequency regulation reserve power. The research on considering the frequency regulation potential of wind turbines in wind farms is still relatively scarce, and it does not involve the prediction error distribution of wind power participating in system frequency regulation potential. Research
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[0058] The specific implementation manners of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
[0059] The present invention designs a method for estimating the error distribution of wind power frequency modulation potential prediction. In practical applications, such as figure 1 As shown, the following steps A to D are specifically performed.
[0060] Step A. For the fan, obtain the rotor speed of the fan, the measured data of the fan power, the predicted wind speed data of the fan, and the measured wind speed data of the fan at each historical moment in the specified historical time period, and perform preprocessing on the obtained data, and then enter step B.
[0061] In the practical application of the above step A, the preprocessing is performed as follows for the rotor speed of the fan, the measured data of the fan power, the predicted wind speed data of the fan, and the measured wind speed data of the fan at...
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The invention relates to a wind power frequency regulation potential prediction error distribution estimation method, which adopts a brand-new strategy design to obtain the wind farm frequency regulation potential prediction interval under different confidence levels, and the execution process does not depend on the prior knowledge of the frequency regulation potential error sample distribution shape, which can realize the wind turbine. The accurate evaluation of the frequency regulation potential error interval of wind power and the accurate estimation of the forecast fluctuation interval are of great significance for optimizing the reserve capacity of traditional units, alleviating the frequency regulation pressure of the power grid and improving the stable operation of the power system. It can accurately reflect the fluctuation range of wind power frequency regulation potential and optimize the unit. Spare capacity to reduce operational risk.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a wind power frequency regulation potential prediction error distribution estimation method, which belongs to the technical field of power system frequency stability control. Background technique [0002] With the integration of large-scale wind power into the power system, the power fluctuation, non-stationarity, and uncertainty of wind power have brought huge challenges to the stable operation of the system, increasing the risk of system frequency instability and the need for frequency regulation. The additional frequency control technology of the converter enables wind turbines to actively respond to grid frequency changes and provide additional active power support when the system frequency drops. Therefore, fully tapping the potential of wind turbines to participate in system frequency regulation and evaluating wind power frequency regulation margins in real time is beneficial to promoting source grid loads. The two-termin...
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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/24H02J3/38H02J3/00
CPCH02J3/24H02J3/381H02J3/004H02J2203/20H02J2300/28Y02A30/00Y02E10/76
Inventor 汤奕阎诚戴剑丰
Owner NANJING DONGBO SMART ENERGY RES INST CO LTD