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Credit risk infection monitoring method based on network structure

A technology of network structure and risk, applied in the field of financial technology

Inactive Publication Date: 2021-03-16
杭州衡泰技术股份有限公司
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention aims to solve the problem of systematic risk quantification in the financial market. Combining the research results of the stability of complex network systems that have been continuously improved in recent years and the traditional financial credit theory, it is hoped that through the construction of market credit risk networks (Credit Risk Networks), Make full use of artificial intelligence and big data to dynamically simulate the generation and spread of credit events and their impact on the overall stability of the financial system. Municipal Financial Office) and the economic investigation department of the public security system, to prevent systemic risks at all levels and provide quantitative decision-making basis

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  • Credit risk infection monitoring method based on network structure
  • Credit risk infection monitoring method based on network structure
  • Credit risk infection monitoring method based on network structure

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Embodiment

[0039] The specific implementation of this patent is described one by one according to the four steps realized by the system:

[0040] System implementation is divided into four steps:

[0041] Step 1. Based on the Granger causality detection based on the EDF time series (2010-2019) provided by Hengtai Zhixin, build a financial institution relationship network.

[0042] The basic principle of Granger causality test: In the case of time series, the Granger causality between two economic variables X and Y is defined as: if the past information of variables X and Y is included, the variable X has a positive effect on the variable Y The prediction effect of Y is better than the prediction effect of Y only based on the past information of Y alone, that is, variable X helps to explain the future changes of variable Y, then variable X is considered to be the Granger cause of variable Y. In short: the error δ obtained by predicting the future value of Y from the common past values ​​of...

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Abstract

The invention provides a credit risk infection monitoring method based on a network structure, aims to solve the problem of financial market systematic risk quantification, combines stability researchresults of a complex network system which is continuously improved in recent years with a traditional financial credit theory, hopes to establish a credit risk network of the market, and fully utilizes Artificial intelligence and big data to dynamically simulate the generation and propagation of credit events and the influence on the global stability of a financial system, so the credit events can be dynamically simulated for central financial supervision institutions (including people banks, bank insurance supervision conferences and certificate supervision conferences), local financial supervision institutions (provincial and municipal financial offices) and public security system investigation departments, and a quantitative decision basis is provided for preventing systematic risks ofall levels.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of financial science and technology, and in particular relates to a method for monitoring credit risk infection based on a network structure. Background technique [0002] At present, my country's economy is in a stage of rapid development, and financial market activities are becoming more and more frequent and complex. Financial institutions must be "too big to fail" and "too connected to fail". Preventing and resolving various risks in the financial field is the top priority heavy. Facing the current economic situation and potential financial crisis, the central government and its various financial regulatory agencies attach great importance to systemic risks, especially the prevention of systemic credit risks. The increasingly frequent financial activities make the connection of various economic entities closer, and even reach the effect of "a single hair can affect the whole body". For example, the US subprime mo...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q40/08G06F16/26G06F16/2458
CPCG06Q40/08G06F16/26G06F16/2474
Inventor 徐行
Owner 杭州衡泰技术股份有限公司