Inter-year forecast initialization method and system

Abstract

The invention provides an inter-year forecast initialization method and system, which relate to the technical field of inter-year climate prediction. The method comprises the steps that a forecast initial field is obtained based on historical simulation of a global coupling mode, and multiple sets of atmosphere forecast initial fields are obtained; based on ocean and sea ice historical simulation driven by atmosphere reanalysis data, the climate state of the ocean and sea ice historical simulation is corrected to be the climate state of ocean and sea ice of global coupling mode historical simulation, and an ocean and sea ice forecast initial field is obtained; the obtained multiple sets of atmosphere forecast initial fields are combined with land, ocean and sea ice initial fields to construct multiple sets of initial fields of inter-year ensemble forecast; a pre-constructed inter-year forecast system is initialized, and historical post-reporting or inter-year forecast of a future business type set is implemented. According to the method, the business type inter-year prediction can be ensured, the influence caused by impact after initialization is reduced, the accuracy of natural change rate prediction of the prediction system is improved, and thus the business prediction level of the inter-year prediction system is enhanced.

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