Early warning method for outburst disaster of ice collapse type moraine lake

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of geological disaster early warning, discloses an ice-collapsing moraine lake outburst disaster early warning method, and solves the problems that an early warning scheme in the prior art is low in early warning precision and difficult to implement. The method comprises the following steps: S1, calculating topographic parameters of moraine lakes and adjacent upstream glaciers, and screening out moraine lakes which need to be emphatically monitored; s2, calculating a freeze-thaw cycle index and an area accumulated temperature index of a glacier area close to the upstream of the moraine lake which is monitored emphatically; s3, on the basis of the freeze-thaw cycle index and the regional accumulated temperature index obtained through calculation in the step S2, a catastrophe climate judgment factor TG-year is calculated, judgment is conducted through an ice collapse type moraine lake outburst climate judgment model, if the catastrophe climate judgment factor TG-year meets the corresponding catastrophe climate judgment condition, an early warning condition is met, and if not, the early warning condition is not met; and S4, early warning implementation. The method is suitable for rapid early warning of wide-range moraine lake outburst disasters in cold and cold mountainous areas.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of early warning of geological disasters, in particular to a method for early warning of ice avalanche type moraine lake outburst disasters. Background technique [0002] Glacial lake outburst disasters are one of the special types of geological disasters in high-altitude mountainous areas. Secondary disasters such as catastrophic floods and debris flows caused by glacial lake outbursts pose a serious threat to economic development and residents' safety in high-altitude mountainous areas. The formation of glacial lake outburst disasters in alpine mountainous areas is different from the outburst mechanism of barrier lakes in general mountainous areas. The stability of the dam body is not only affected by topographical factors, but also by the structural damage of the dam body caused by the melting of ice inside the dam body, as well as the impact of moraine. The impact of sudden ice avalanches, landslides and intensifi...

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Problems solved by technology

[0008] 2. Comprehensive consideration of climate and terrain factors to give early warning of glacial lake collapse. Such methods often use accumulated temperature changes or short-duration temperature changes as the main meteorological judgment conditions, which cannot objectively reflect the climatic mechanism of glacier collapse near moraine lakes, and the early warning threshold is The fixed value does not meet the dynamic characteristics of the critical conditions of disaster occurrence in complex natural environments, and its applicability to early warning of glacial lake outburst disasters is very limited, such as:

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