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Power grid man-made forest fire density quantitative forecasting method and system for optimizing missing report rate

A technology of false negative rate and wildfire, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problem of high false negative rate, and achieve the effect of reducing false negative rate

Pending Publication Date: 2022-05-13
STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention provides a method and system for quantitatively forecasting man-made mountain fire density in a power grid with optimized false alarm rate, which is used to solve the technical problem of high false alarm rate in the existing method of mountain fire prediction based on historical mountain fire occurrences

Method used

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  • Power grid man-made forest fire density quantitative forecasting method and system for optimizing missing report rate
  • Power grid man-made forest fire density quantitative forecasting method and system for optimizing missing report rate
  • Power grid man-made forest fire density quantitative forecasting method and system for optimizing missing report rate

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Embodiment 1

[0041] see figure 1 , the quantitative forecasting method of the man-made mountain fire density of power grid that optimizes false alarm rate of the present invention, comprises the following steps:

[0042] S1: Divide the area under the jurisdiction of the State Grid into 830×1734 rectangular grids at equal intervals of 3 km, and the direction of each grid boundary is vertical or horizontal, and the grid in row i and column j is denoted as G ij (i=1, 2, ..., 830, j = 1, 2, ..., 1734);

[0043] S2: According to the area corresponding to each grid, the number of wildfires that occurred on the same day as the date to be predicted (March 18, 2020) in the past few years, as well as the predicted wind speed, predicted precipitation and forecast on the date to be predicted Humidity, and comprehensively calculate the risk index of wildfire occurrence in the corresponding area of ​​each grid.

[0044] During implementation, it is preferred to use the following method for calculation...

Embodiment 2

[0059] The present invention also provides a computer system, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and operable on the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, the steps in any of the above embodiments are realized.

[0060] To sum up, the present invention comprehensively considers the multi-factor index of the number of historical wildfires, wind speed, precipitation and humidity, and comprehensively judges the risk index of man-made wildfires in the power grid, which can significantly reduce the misreporting rate of wildfire prediction.

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid man-made forest fire density quantitative forecasting method and system for optimizing the missing report rate. The method comprises the following steps that a to-be-measured area is divided into a plurality of grids; and comprehensively calculating a forest fire occurrence risk index of the region corresponding to each grid according to the times of forest fire occurrence of the region corresponding to each grid on the same day as the to-be-predicted date in the historical few years and the predicted wind speed, predicted precipitation and predicted humidity on the to-be-predicted date. By comprehensively considering the multi-factor indexes of the historical forest fire frequency, the wind speed, the rainfall and the humidity, the risk index of the power grid man-made forest fire is comprehensively judged, and the missing report rate of forest fire prediction can be remarkably reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grid wildfire prediction, in particular to a method and system for quantitatively forecasting man-made wildfire density in a power grid with an optimized false alarm rate. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the global climate change, the occurrence of wildfires has been increasing year by year, which often leads to tripping of transmission lines and poses a serious threat to the safe and stable operation of the power grid. According to statistical analysis, more than 90% of wildfires are caused by human factors such as sacrifices, burning waste, and burning garbage, and man-made wildfires are very random. [0003] In the prediction of wildfires, in order to overcome the randomness of man-made wildfires, the traditional method is to make statistics on the occurrence of historical wildfires: if the occurrence of wildfires in a certain place is serious in the same period of time in his...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06393G06Q10/0635G06Q50/06
Inventor 简洲郭俊冯涛蔡泽林
Owner STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER
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