Method and device for predicting net load reserve capacity demand based on CatBoost and storage medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a CatBoost-based net load reserve capacity demand prediction method and apparatus, and a storage medium. The method comprises the steps of obtaining prediction feature information of each prediction point in a to-be-predicted time period; inputting the prediction feature information into a load/new energy prediction error prediction model constructed based on a CatBoost ensemble learning method to obtain a load prediction error and a new energy prediction error corresponding to each prediction point; subtracting the load prediction error of each prediction point from the new energy prediction error to obtain a net load reserve capacity demand prediction result of each prediction point; and under a certain confidence level, obtaining the upper and lower limits of the net load reserve capacity demand prediction interval of each prediction point according to the net load reserve capacity demand prediction error cumulative distribution function. The method can be used for day-ahead and intra-day net load reserve capacity demand evaluation, and is high in prediction stability, accuracy, operation speed and operation efficiency and high in universality.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of net load spare capacity demand assessment, in particular to a CatBoost-based net load spare capacity demand prediction method, device and storage medium. Background technique [0002] The reserve demand stems from the uncertainty in the operation of the power grid, and on the one hand, the unpredictable power grid accident (accident reserve). On the other hand, the inaccuracy of supply and demand forecast (load reserve) is mainly due to load forecast errors in traditional power grids. my country's power grid has not yet formed a scientific reserve demand assessment method, and cannot fully consider the upward and downward adjustment resource demand of the power grid caused by the uncertainty of new energy generation power. The power grid backup problem involves operation problems at different levels such as frequency control, safety control and economic dispatch. However, the current backup management mo...

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Problems solved by technology

[0010] The present invention provides a CatBoost-based net load reserve capacity demand forecasting method, device and storage medium to solve the problem that the existing load reserve capacity demand forecasting method is difficult under the action of multiple uncertain factors such as wind / light forecasting and load forecasting. The problem of making accurate predictions

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