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Quantitative assessment method for epidemic situation propagation risk based on heterogeneous factors

A quantitative assessment and risk technology, applied in the field of quantitative assessment of the risk of epidemic spread due to heterogeneous factors, can solve problems such as inability to reflect the risk situation, achieve the effect of reducing impact and ensuring objectivity

Pending Publication Date: 2022-07-12
数字泸州产业投资集团有限公司 +2
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  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

However, due to the persistence and periodicity of the epidemic risk, the static assessment results cannot reflect the actual risk situation. The current model-based static assessment has great limitations, and the assessment results can only reflect the epidemic risk situation at a certain moment

Method used

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  • Quantitative assessment method for epidemic situation propagation risk based on heterogeneous factors
  • Quantitative assessment method for epidemic situation propagation risk based on heterogeneous factors
  • Quantitative assessment method for epidemic situation propagation risk based on heterogeneous factors

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Embodiment Construction

[0070] The embodiments of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0071] like figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a quantitative assessment method for epidemic spread risk of heterogeneous factors, comprising the following steps:

[0072] S1: Determine the epidemic risk level and epidemic risk status of the risk area;

[0073] S2: Build and train an epidemic risk attribute model;

[0074] S3: According to the trained epidemic risk attribute model, determine the state transition matrix of the risk area;

[0075] S4: According to the state transition matrix of the risk area, determine the stable state of the risk area, and use the stable state to determine the epidemic risk in the risk area.

[0076] In the embodiment of the present invention, in step S1, the expression of the epidemic risk level R of the risk area is:

[0077] R={P,H,C}

[0078] Among them, P represents the possibility of risk occur...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an epidemic situation propagation risk quantitative evaluation method based on heterogeneous factors. The method comprises the following steps: S1, determining an epidemic situation risk level and an epidemic situation risk state of a risk area; s2, constructing and training an epidemic situation risk attribute model; s3, according to the trained epidemic situation risk attribute model, determining a state transition matrix of the risk area; and S4, according to the state transition matrix of the risky area, determining the stable state of the risky area, and determining the epidemic risk of the risky area by using the stable state. The progressive transmission method adopted by the invention has the effects of special epidemic situation risk influence factor weight distribution and evaluation result consistency check, can solve the conflict problem in the evaluation process, clarifies different influences of various factors on epidemic situation risks, and ensures the objectivity of the evaluation result.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of quantitative risk assessment, and in particular relates to a quantitative assessment method for epidemic spread risk of heterogeneous factors. Background technique [0002] The spread of major epidemics has great uncertainty and harm, posing a potential threat to the public's health. In the absence of effective assessment and monitoring, it will be particularly difficult for relevant departments to manage and control the risk of emergencies. The establishment of a special quantitative risk assessment system to assess and predict potential epidemic risks in a region can effectively Avoid or reduce the impact of outbreak risks. Commonly used quantitative risk assessment methods include Delphi method, progressive transfer method and risk matrix method. These methods provide solutions for quantitative risk analysis and are also applicable to quantitative assessment of epidemic risk. However, due to the per...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80G06K9/62G06N3/08
CPCG16H50/80G06N3/08G06F18/24
Inventor 孙科乔少杰吴凌淳魏军林韩楠魏军平魏小平王伟范勇强鄢府叶青李洪贵
Owner 数字泸州产业投资集团有限公司
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