Cognitive risk analysis system for risk identification, modeling and assessment

Abstract

A risk modeling system, method and program product. A query orchestrator interfaces with users posing high-level queries and expanding high-level queries into lower level queries. A queryable risk extractor applies lower level queries to available risk-related knowledge to extract potential risks, e.g., to petrochemical resource production in a selected locale. A semantic enrichment unit applies semantic enrichment to extracted potential risks and selectively annotates the enriched results. A risk model builder generates a graphical risk model for display on a display. Risk analyst can use the graphical risk model to augment risk-related intelligence.

Description

CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATION[0001]The present application claims benefit to provisional U.S. Application Ser. No. 62 / 509,526 (Attorney Docket No. YOR920161861US1), “COGNITIVE RISK ANALYSIS SYSTEM FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION, MODELING AND ASSESSMENT” to Ruben Rodriguez Torrado et al., filed May 22, 2017, assigned to the assignees of the present invention and incorporated herein by reference.BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTIONField of the Invention[0002]The present invention is related to risk analysis, and more particularly to supplementing risk analysts to facilitate risk analysis without requiring the risk analysts to understand complex analytical methods.Background Description[0003]Typical risk analysis for a business may involve internal risk analysts in concert with external risk advisory services and consultants (collectively risk analysts). The risk analysts identify risk threats that may be relevant to a specific situation, e.g., risks to petrochemical resource production in a ...

AI Technical Summary

Benefits of technology

The invention allows easy assessment of risks without stochastically modelling the venture, making it more flexible for analysts who are not familiar with complex analytical methods.

Problems solved by technology

Economic systems are rife with heterogeneous risk threats and resulting events that can damage and disrupt businesses.

Moreover, in the current age of globalization and interconnectedness businesses increasingly are exposed to new types of risks.

Beyond the inherent uncertainty in oil field geophysical properties, there are other inherent risks that may interfere with production.

These inherent risks may include, for example, geopolitical conflicts, natural hazards, and nationalization of the energy industry.

Currently, constructing such a model is laborious and expensive.

Unfortunately, risk analysts frequently are insufficiently familiar with the complex analytical methods used to model the opportunity as a generic stochastic process.

This lack of the complex analytical skill makes a comprehensive risk analysis a daunting task.

Further, new risk types make conducting a comprehensive and standardized risk analysis for any business opportunity even more challenging.

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