The invention discloses a carbon emission prediction and novel power
system planning method and
system in the urban power field. The method comprises the following steps: calculating the
energy demand quantity of each department according to the urban total production value GDP,
population, industrial structure and
energy consumption characteristic data; calculating the total carbon emission amount of the
electric power department based on the
energy demand in combination with the carbon emission factor; on the basis of the total carbon emission amount of an
electric power department, urban energy endowment, emission reduction tasks, emission reduction policies and power generation technology improvement are considered, and on the basis of economy,
population and
electricity consumption parameters of an
electric power demand end, various development situations of low carbon,
zero carbon and negative carbon of an
electric power system are designed; predicting carbon emission and carbon emission reduction corresponding to the demand end in each scene, and obtaining an emission reduction path from the demand end; and establishing a power
system multi-scene optimization planning model by taking the lowest net present value of the total cost of the system as an objective function and taking urban power related constraints as constraint conditions, and calculating a power generation installed capacity development path meeting the system cost and the related constraints.