Water traffic risk evaluation and prediction method based on geographic information system

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for assessing and forecasting marine traffic risk on the basis of the geographic information system; the method comprises the steps of: taking the present and future situations of navigation risk in a certain water area as a research object, analyzing the features of navigation environment in the water area according to the past and present traffic situation of the water area, establishing a model for assessing and forecasting the risk of collision and stranding accidents by combining the features of marine traffic accidents in the water area, and assessing the influence of the change of navigation conditions in the water area on the navigation environment in the water area, as well as the corresponding navigation risks, thereby visually manifesting the geographic distribution of the risks in the water area and carrying out the dynamic forecasting of the marine traffic risk in the water area in future. The method avoids the simplification in assessments only by using qualitative evaluation and has the features of gridding and dynamic development. The application of the method can not only visually reflect the geographic distribution of the marine traffic risks, but also forecast the situation of navigation environment risks in future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of traffic information engineering and control, in particular to a water traffic risk evaluation and prediction method based on a geographic information system. Background technique [0002] With the development of large-scale ships and the resulting deterioration of maneuverability, increasing ship traffic volume, transportation of dangerous goods and potential threats to the marine environment, ship traffic management has become widely used in various port waters around the world. One of the effective measures to reduce the risk of water traffic. [0003] The traditional approach to dealing with risk in the maritime world has been reactive: actions are taken after an incident or problem arises. It is very important for decision makers to realize that resources are limited and to carefully analyze the risks associated with the problem rather than take a certain measure hastily, otherwise it is often a high...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although the above method has played an important role in the quantitative analysis of water traffic accidents, it also has certain limitations: first, the statistics of the number of accidents caused by various reasons can only represent the absolute number of values, and it does not reflect the various types of accidents. The degree of connection between the cause and the occurrence of the accident; secondly, the mathematical statistical analysis method requires a large sample size and a good sample distribution, and it is difficult to meet the above requirements for the accumulated accident data in actual work

At present, fuzzy mathematics is mostly used in the risk assessment research of coastal port navigation waters, but the evaluation methods mentioned above are all based on the whole, and cannot be specific to a specific area, and cannot intuitively reflect the regional risk of a specific water area difference, and it is impossible to dynamically predict the traffic risk in this water area

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