The invention discloses a mountainous area highway
traffic risk short-time prediction method and
system, relates to the technical field of intelligent traffic, and solves the problems that a traditional
traffic risk prediction method is single in
data dimension and inaccurate in scene division. According to the technical scheme, the method is characterized in that a multi-source heterogeneous
data set including historical accident data, road linear data, real-time
traffic flow data and meteorological data is constructed; performing clustering analysis on the multi-source heterogeneous
data set by adopting a clustering
algorithm, determining core clustering features, and dynamically correcting a
membership function in combination with road linear data to divide scenes to obtain classified scenes; determining a
risk level of the classification scene through a pre-constructed
gradient boosting tree model and a long short-
term memory network
hybrid model; and triggering a grading early warning
signal according to the risk grade, and issuing early warning information and a
dynamic management and
control measure corresponding to the risk grade based on the grading early warning
signal. The effects of improving the risk
analysis data coverage rate, being more accurate in scene division and improving the risk prediction precision are achieved.