Annual maximum load prediction method based on engineering consultation industry expansion and temperature reduction model

Abstract

The invention discloses an annual maximum load prediction method based on an engineering consultation industry expansion and temperature reduction model. The method comprises the following steps of: a historical data processing step: obtaining an annual maximum load of each year in the history and a maximum temperature at a maximum load day, carrying out accumulative temperature correction on the maximum temperature at the maximum load day of each year in the history, calculating an annual basic load of each year in the history, and calculating a temperature sensitive coefficient at each temperature; a load reduction step: determining a maximum reference temperature, solving an adjustment coefficient, and calculating an annual reduction maximum load of each year in the history; a load extrapolation prediction and result adjustment step: establishing a regression model of engineering consultation industry expansion and temperature reduction, carrying out extrapolation prediction on an annual reduction maximum load of a target year, determining a prediction interval of an annual maximum temperature of the target year, and determining an annual maximum load prediction interval according to the prediction interval of the annual maximum temperature of the target year.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the annual maximum load based on an industrial expansion and temperature reduction model used in the field of power grid control. Background technique [0002] The discussion and analysis and the practice of load forecasting in a certain area show that for regional loads, it is generally difficult to have the corresponding economic data statistical caliber, so it often does not have the conditions to adopt the top-down forecasting method. Regional power grid planning often only involves one region such as a development zone or some users. Its own load characteristics and its forecast requirements are significantly different from the total load forecast used for power balance. Therefore, the common macro method, the overall forecast, large-scale Some methods, such as regions, are not fully applicable from the perspective of load characteristics and data collection. However, the method of predicting the m...

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Problems solved by technology

[0002] The discussion and analysis and the practice of load forecasting in a certain area show that for regional loads, it is generally difficult to have the corresponding statistical caliber of economic data, so it often does not meet the conditions for using top-down forecasting methods

Regional power grid planning often only involves one region such as a development zone or some users. Its own load characteristics and its forecast requirements are significantly different from the total load forecast used for power balance. Therefore, the common macro method, the overall forecast, large-scale Some methods, such as regions, are not fully applicable from the perspective of load characteristics and data collection.

Combined with the characteristics of regional load, based on industrial expansion, that is, the combination of new capacity and meteorological factors, the method of predicting the maximum load of the target year has not been reported so far.

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